  |
NIC - 2020 Project - http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html
Information about a research project aimed at covering influences that would shape the world to the year 2020. Contains papers about the nature of future conflicts. Sponsored by the US National Intelligence Council. |
| |
Violent Conflict in the 21st Century: Causes, Instruments, and Mitigation - http://www.amacad.org/publications/violent.aspx
Collection of essays including 'The New Evils of the 21st Century' by Robert D. Kaplan; 'Weapons of Mass Destruction and Physical Heritage of the Cold War' by W.K.H. Panofsky and 'Group Loyalty and Ethnic Violence' by Donald L. Horowitz. [PDF] |
| |
Global Guerrillas: 4GW -- Fourth Generation Warfare - http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2004/05/4gw_fourth_gene.html
An overview of the key concepts by John Robb, May 2004. |
| |
A Warning from Clausewitz on 4GW - http://www.counterpunch.org/lind03082003.html
William S. Lind alerts about the dangers for USA of being the only superpower. CounterPunch, March 2003. |
| |
Battlefield of the Future - 21st Century Warfare Issues - http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/battle/bftoc.html
Study on future principles of war, military affairs, air power, plus information and biological war. From the U.S. Air Force. |
| |
The Future of War and the American Military - http://www.harvardmagazine.com/on-line/050218.html
Shows how the process of developing and building new weapons, as does the process of recruiting and training new military officers takes decades, so that, leaders need to be futurists by making statements, implicitly or explicitly, about what they think will be useful many years ahead. By, Stephen Peter Rosen, Harvard Magazine, May-June 2002. |
| |
Nanotechnology and International Security - http://www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT05/Papers/Gubrud/index.html
How technologies emerging over the coming decades will undermine military stability while causing economic and political turmoil. The need to move beyond deterrence to an integrated international security system. Article by Mark Avrum Gubrud, Center for Superconductivity Research, University of Maryland, 1997. |
| |
The War Next Time: Countering Rogue States and Terrorists Armed with Chemical and Biological Weapons - http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/war_next_time/cover.htm
A compilation of articles by several authors about how future wars are expected to be. Barry R. Schneider and Jim A. Davis, Editors, USAF Counterproliferation Center, April 2004. |
| |
The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation - http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/4th_gen_war_gazette.htm
An article that intends to anticipate what the future conflicts will be like. Introduces the concept of fourth generation war. By William S. Lind, Keith Nightengale, John F. Schmitt, Joseph W. Sutton and Gary I. Wilson, published in Marine Corps Gazette, October 1989. |
| |
Nation-State Failure: A Recurring Phenomenon? - http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2003_11_06_papers/panel2_nov6.pdf
Analyzes the weakness and failure of nation-states as a potential source of future conflicts. Essay by Robert Rotberg, for NIC 2020 Project, Inaugural Workshop, November 2003. |
| |
Recognizing and Understanding Revolutionary Change in Warfare: The Sovereignty of Context - Strategic Studies Institute - http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=640
The author, Colin S. Gray, provides a critical audit of the great RMA debate and of some actual RMA behavior and warns against a transformation that is highly potent only in a narrow range of strategic cases. He warns that the military effectiveness of a process of revolutionary change in a "way of war" can only be judged by the test of battle, and possibly not even then. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, February 2006. |
| |
Homeland Security: The New Role for Defense - http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF189/sf189.htm
Shows the change of US strategic vision of national and global security after September 11 attacks, by Steven J. Tomisek. Strategic Forum No.189, February 2002. |
| |
Swarming - The Next Face of the Battle - http://www.rand.org/commentary/100703AWST.html
Technological advances often give rise to new types of weapons, but the achievement of lasting breakthroughs in fighting power requires organizational and doctrinal innovation. Opinion article by J. Arquilla and D. Ronfeldt, Aviation Week and Space Technology, September 2003. |
| |
Chinese Views of Future Warfare - http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ndu/chinview/chinacont.html
Collection of articles about doctrine of future types and causes of warfare, future threats of security environment, short-term future challenges for possible local war, and long-term future warfare from the point of view of several Chinese authors. Publisher: Institute for National Strategic Studies, US - National Defense University. |
| |
All Possible Wars? Towards a Consensus View of the Future Security Environment, 2001-2025 - http://www.ndu.edu/inss/McNair/mcnair63/m63cvr.html
Sam Tangredi presents a set of assumptions and possible scenarios about the future security environment for the next 25 years. National Defense University, USA. McNair Paper No. 63, November 2000. |
| |
Globalization and the Nature of War - http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=215
The article shows how globalization is enhancing the role of political guidance and changing the nature of war. Author: Antulio Echevarria II. Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the US Army War College, 2003. |
| |
Past and Future of Nuclear War - http://www.ieer.org/comments/dsmt/auspeech.html
Transcript of a talk given at American University, April 2002, with edits. |
| |
The Revenge of the Melians: Asymmetric Threats and the Next QDR - http://www.ndu.edu/inss/McNair/mcnair62/mcnair62.pdf
An assessment of future security environment for 2025, by Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., National Defense University, McNair Paper 62, 2000. |
| |
Chemical and Biological Terrorism in the 21st Century - http://www.vectorsite.net/twgas_5.html
The zigzag evolution of chemical and biological weapons in the 20th century give causes for both optimism and pessimism in the course it will take in the 21st, by Greg Goebel, Jun 2003. |
| |
Fourth Generation Warfare: How Tactics of the Weak Confound the Strong - http://d-n-i.net/fcs/comments/c490.htm
Postulates that today's global environment is defined by the 4th Generation War reality, with nation-states confronting criminal enterprises, fanatical opportunists, and terrorists whose gang-like networks transcend national boundaries. All these actors often slip through the cracks of security, military, and legal bureaucracies. Opinion article by G.I. Wilson, John P. Sullivan, and Hal Kempfer, Military.Com, September 2003. |
| |
The War in Iraq: the Nature of Insurgency Warfare - http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/Archive/B.20040602.NatofInsurge/B.20040602.NatofInsurge.pdf
An overview of the challenges derived from this revitalized kind of war. Andrew Krepinevich, Jun 2004. |
| |
May the Smartest Machine Win: Warfare in the 21st Century - http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0248.html
Article from Raymond Kurzweil on future methods of fighting, including pilotless planes and thinking machines. Published in 1993. |
| |
Historical Perspectives on Future War - http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/milreview/baumann-marapr97.htm
Shows how thinking deeply about the future of war requires careful reflection on its past, by Robert F. Baumann, 1997. |
| |
Military Role in Countering Terrorist Use of WMD - http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/dickinson.htm
The article shows how the end of the Cold War created a new-world order and presented new challenges for future leaders, such as countering the ever growing terrorist threat. Accompanying this threat is a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, now available to individuals, as well as groups and nations. Author: Lansing E. Dickinson, Counterproliferation Paper No. 1, USAF Counterproliferation Center, Air War College, 1999. |
| |
Evolution of War - http://www.defense-and-society.org/fcs/defense_death_spiral/5_evolution.htm
A slide presentation showing the past, present and future of the war. |
| |
The New Craft of Intelligence: Achieving Asymmetric Advantage in the Face of Non Traditional Threats - http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=217
A paper where the author, Robert M. Steele, examines two paradigm shifts--one in relation to the threat and a second in relation to intelligence methods-- while offering a new model for threat analysis and a new model for intelligence operations in non-traditional asymmetric warfare. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, February 2002. |
| |
From The Military: Applying 4GW Theory to The Intelligence Community - http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/cole_lessons_from_the_military.htm
The article states that the intelligence community is key to the 4th generation warfare, so it's important that they understand what they're looking for. By Myke Cole. |
| |
Matrix Warfare: The New Face of Competition and Conflict in the 21st Century - http://www.smallwarsjournal.com/documents/williams2.pdf
A description of new organizational patterns and their application to war and business. By J. Noel Williams for Small Wars Journal, USA, August 2005. (pdf file) |
| |
Fourth Generation Warfare and the Information Arrow - http://www.d-n-i.net/wilcox/information_arrow_draft_8p.doc
States the importance the information in the new way of fighting wars. By Greg Wilcox, July 2005. |
| |
Fourth Generation Warfare Is Here! - http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/gould_spinney_4GW.htm
Harold A. Gould and Franklin C. Spinney review the changes after September 11th attacks. University of Virginia, USA, Fall, 2001. |
| |
Fourth Generation Warfare - http://d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/4GW_wilson-wilcox_boyd_conf_2002.pdf
Slide show that summarizes the key aspects of asymmetric conflicts, by Greg Wilcox and G.I. Wilson for Boyd Comference, 2002. |
| |
Global Challenges for the 21st Century: Nonproliferation and Arms Control - http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/cia/53100CIA.pdf
Remarks by John Gannon from the National Intelligence Council to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, about the globalization of the security environment and the implications for counterproliferation, May 2000. |
| |
Will Special Ops Success Change the Face of War? - http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/issues/2002/Feb/Will_Special.htm
The role of U.S. special operations forces in future conflicts explained by a number of specialists. Author: Harold Kennedy, National Defense Magazine, Feb 2002. |
| |
The Dangers of Warfare in a Media Age - http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/Vol2Issue16/vol2issue16howardpfv.html
The author alerts about the dangers of the contemporary media age, in which events across the world are instantly brought before vast international audiences, for example, that tomorrow’s wars could be at risk of being overly influenced by the views of spectator audiences, at the expense of the considerations that ought to guide policy-makers, such as the assessment of the national interest. By Roger Howard, April 2003. |
| |
Conflict in a Changing World: Looking Two Decades Forward - http://www.defac.ac.uk/colleges/csrc/document-listings/special/M25
A view of conflict and its strategic environment two decades ahead. Author: C.J. Dick. Published by The Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, UK, 2002. |
| |
Welcome to the Postmodern Warfare Era - http://www.speakout.com/activism/opinions/2973-1.html
An anticipatory article by David Isenberg, October 2000. |
| |
Bury Cold War Mindset: Fourth Generation Warfare Rewrites Military Strategy - http://www.cdi.org/mrp/4GW.cfm
Article by Jack Shanahan, Chet Richards and Franklin Spinney, 2002. Describes fourth-generation warfare that pits nations against non-national organizations or networks that include not only fundamentalist extremists, but also ethnic factions, mafias and narcotics traffickers. |
| |
Changing the Paradigm of the War - http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/daskal_changing_paradigms.htm
A paper about the nature of fourth generation warfare and the form it may take in Middle East. By Steve Daskal, November 2003. |
| |
Future War: What Trends in the America Post-Cold War Tell Us About Early 21st Century Warfare - http://www.analysiscenter.northropgrumman.com/files/future_war.pdf
Examines the performance of U.S. forces in three major post-Cold War military conflicts to identify commonalities and trends that may have implications for the conduct of warfare in the early 21st Century. By Christopher J. Bowie, Robert P. Haffa Jr. and Robert E. Mullins, Analysis Center Papers,Northrop Grumman Corporation, 2003. |
| |
War Paradigm - http://www.omninerd.com/2004/06/29/articles/1
A look into the fundamental changes happening in warfare and how they may, in turn, effect the world system. By Will Waddell, June 2004. |
| |
The Kingdom of Chaos or What Hath the Great Subversive Wrought? - http://www.centrotocqueville.org.ar/htm/htm/nab/nb10050401in.htm
The article describes the state of chaos of the post-Cold War world, with a steady increase of entropy and anomie, and a crisis of former models of leadership. Also, analyzes the nature of future conflicts and the role of United States and Europe as key players within this new environment. Authors: Norman A. Bailey and Criton M. Zoakos, published by the Center for Hemispheric Studies Alexis de Tocqueville. |
| |
The War Ahead And The Way Ahead - http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/war-ahead.htm
The possible use by insurgecy of tactical success for operational and strategic impact is analyzed by Charles K. Bartles, Lester W. Grau and Jacob W. Kipp from the Foreign Military Strategic Office. |
| |
A Military for the 21st Century: Lessons from the Recent Past - http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF181/sf181.htm
A study about the required post-Cold War military transformation which takes into account the changing nature of war and the experiences of past conflicts. By Anthony C. Zinni, Strategic Forum, US National Defense University, July 2001. |
| |
From Kadesh to Kandahar: Military Theory and the Future of War. - http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JIW/is_3_56/ai_105210224/pg_1
The challenges of post-modern war from a multidimensional point of view, by Michael Evans, Naval War College Review, Summer 2003. |
| |
Watch on the West: War and Strategy in the 21st Century - http://www.fpri.org/ww/0304.200202.black.warandstrategy21stcentury.html
Describes how events in the Twenty-first Century will test the limits to American strength but not its fundamentals and postulates that these tests will underscore the inability of technology to overcome all challenges, by Jeremy Black, February 2002. |
| |
Thinking Asymmetrically in Times of Terror - http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/02spring/gray.htm
An approach to the better understanding of asymmetric threats. By Colin S. Gray, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly - Spring 2002. |
| |
Fighting in the Gray Zone. A Strategy to Close the Preemption Gap. - http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?PubID=412
The US 2002 National Security Strategy (NSS) identified the proliferation, privatization, and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist groups and rogue states as the critical nontraditional threat of the 21st century. Published in September 2004, US Army War College. Authored by Joanne M. Fish, Samuel F. McCraw and Christopher J. Reddish. |
 |
Has Warfare Changed? Sorting Apples from Oranges - http://www.ausa.org/PDFdocs/lpe02-3.pdf
States the difference between the conduct of war and the nature of war, and its practical consequences in the information age. Author: James M.Dubik, Landpower Essay, Institute of Landwarfare, July 2002. |
| |
Information Warfare - http://www.plausiblefutures.com/index.php?cat=6694a
Articles about information warfare, nanowar, and other future conflict scenarios from Plausible Futures Newsletter. |
| |
The Network Is the Battlefield - http://www.businessweek.com/print/technology/content/jan2003/tc2003017_2464.htm?tc&sub=03miltech
The Pentagon's aim is to meld weapons systems and people into a whole, called network-centric warfare, that's greater than the sum of its parts. From Business Week Online, January 2003. |
| |
Beyond vom Kriege: The Character and Conduct of Modern War - http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/05summer/hooker.pdf
An effort to understand war and the role of armed forces in modern societies, based on the last years experiences and the classic theories. Author: R.D.Hooker Jr., Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly , Summer 2005. |
| |
Warfare in the 21st Century - http://www.carlisle.army.mil/library/bibs/warfar03.htm
Books, documents, articles and web sites. References gathered in a selected bibliography compiled by Jane E. Gibish, U.S. Army War College Library, July 2003. |
| |
A 21st. Century Security Architecture for the Americas: Multilateral Cooperation, Liberal Peace and Soft Power. - http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm/hurl/PubID=15
A paper showing a response to the question of "How can the United States best develop security cooperation within the Americas?" by Col. Joseph R. Nunez. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, August 2002. |
| |
Toward the 21st Century: Trends in Post-Cold War International Security - http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/details.cfm?r_oID=6810&sid=C119C06DD2C2184ABE6A5EF90547BC05
Addresses key changes since the Cold War ended, lessons, current problems and issues. Commissioned by the Swiss Ministry of Defense, 1998. |