COLOMBO (AFP) — Economic expansion in war-battered Sri Lanka fell to 1.5 percent during the first quarter of this year, as the global recession hurt exports, official data showed Wednesday.
The slowdown contrasted with 6.2 percent growth in the first quarter of 2008, though hopes of long-term development have risen since the government's defeat of Tamil rebels last month after decades of conflict.
"The global turmoil has directly or indirectly affected the local economy," the head of the government's statistics office Suranjana Vidyaratne said.
The growth rate was the lowest in Sri Lanka since 2003, with the industries sector, which includes key shipments of garments, growing by only 1.9 percent against 6.0 percent in the same period in 2008.
Service industries, which include telecom, banking and shipping, grew by 1.0 percent compared with 6.4 percent in the same quarter last year.
Agriculture, focused on exports of tea and rubber, grew by a modest three percent, against 5.9 percent 12 months earlier.
Following the Tamil Tigers' defeat, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka plans to revise the island's economic forecast for 2009 up to between four and five percent, from 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent announced earlier this year.
The end of the war should draw investors into construction and other infrastructure sectors, analysts say.
"When the northern reconstruction comes on stream later this year, that will add a significant impact on the economy. Things will take off," said Chinthaka Ranasinghe, head of research at John Keells Stockbrokers.
Prakriti Sofat, a Singapore-based economist at HSBC, said Sri Lanka had "great potential to develop tourism and business process outsourcing, and attract foreign direct investment into its manufacturing sector."
Sri Lanka's economy posted 6.0 percent growth in 2008, down from 6.8 percent in 2007.
The government has said it would not "beg" for foreign aid even though a 1.9 billion dollar bailout from the International Monetary Fund has been delayed due to pressure from nations critical of the tactics used against the Tigers.
"Sri Lanka does not want to go after anyone for aid with bended knees," Central Bank chief Nivard Cabraal said last week.
He added that foreign reserves had picked up recently, with money coming from aid to meet the humanitarian needs of nearly 300,000 displaced people in the north, as well as from remittances and foreign investments.
"Little by little, the urgency of the IMF loan is easing. I am not saying that we don't need it. The threat of a downturn is receding and Sri Lanka is getting some inflows after the end of the war," Cabraal said.
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