JERUSALEM (AFP) — The only way for Hamas to salvage the Gaza war is to lure Israeli troops into street battles in the crowded enclave's myriad backstreets and hope the toll rises, analysts say.
After two weeks of conflict that has left more than 850 Palestinians dead, some analysts are already drawing comparisons with the 2003 US invasion of Iraq in which crushing military superiority was transformed into a grinding battle with insurgents.
"The overriding sense within Hamas is that time is on their side," said Nicolas Pelham, senior Middle East analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
Hundreds of Israeli air raids and a ground invasion of the Palestinian territory have battered Hamas but failed to stop the cross-border rocket attacks that Israel said forced it into Operation Cast Lead.
Pressure on the Middle East's most powerful army has been increased by a UN Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire and troop withdrawal, stinging criticism by UN agencies and the International Committee of the Red Cross and the looming arrival of Barack Obama as US president.
It is a war that both sides have carefully prepared.
Hamas built up its Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades military wing and, according to Israel, built sniper nests, booby-trap bombs and escape tunnels across the territory.
The Islamists' television channel, Al-Aqsa, braced the 1.5 million population with pop videos such as one showing a boy singing to his mother before she becomes a suicide bomber who kills four Israeli soldiers.
It has shown gruesome live coverage of mangled dead and injured arriving at hospital after each raid.
Israel, embarrassed by the failure of its 2006 attempt to destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon, trained troops for more than 18 months on a model of Gaza City's maze of alleys built in the Negev Desert.
"Hamas is probably hoping to drag the Israelis into close quarter street fighting in Gaza City and the refugee camps," said David Hartwell, Middle East specialist for Jane's defence analysis group.
"Its real strategy is to increase the casualty levels to a degree that it becomes more of a politically sensitive issue."
Pelham, at the ICG, said Hamas leaders are "banking" on extending the conflict. "They want to draw Israel into Gaza cities which would make it harder to get out again.
"There are those who draw analogies with the United States' invasion of Iraq," -- troops fighting insurgents with a mounting toll. "They think the real resistance will start once they are inside the towns."
A Western military attache said Israel is not "precisely certain" how much damage it has inflicted on Hamas even though there have been high-profile victims such as the air-raid killing of Islamist ideologue Nizar Rayan, with his four wives and 12 of his children.
"If there are 500 Hamas dead that would be a significant blow militarily, but given the radicalisation on the street if the fighting goes on, Hamas would be confident that they can be replaced," said Hartwell.
Hamas has held talks with Egypt, which has a ceasefire plan, but insists it is not covered by UN resolution as it took no part in the Security Council debate.
Israel has demanded the end of rocket strikes and weapons smuggling into Egypt.
But Pelham said Hamas would not want international monitors on its border with Egypt or any move that could give Palestinian Authority president Mahmud Abbas "a possible bridgehead" for a return to Gaza.
Hamas, which rails against Israel's blockade of the territory, wants at least the reopening of the Rafah crossing with Egypt.
Israel is increasingly anxious to get the job finished because of the change of administration in the United States on January 20 and its own general election on February 10, analysts say.
Obama left foreign policy to President George W. Bush who has been a strong supporter of Israel. That backing could change. "Israel has not said that January 20 is a deadline but they may run into trouble if it goes on much longer," said Hartwell.
Despite wavering in the government there are still calls in Israel for a tough line on Hamas.
Shabtai Shavit, a former head of the Mossad secret service said Hamas would never stop rocket attacks on Israel. "In my strategic view Israel must continue pounding Hamas" and take over Gaza's border area with Egypt to stop smuggling.
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