http://www.google.com/notebook/feeds/07491261619920101511/notebooks/BDQSkIwoQ3ZrF6pYi2008-09-05T04:47:30.943Zrisk Addendum to GlossaryGoogle Notebook1110http://www.google.com/notebook/feeds/07491261619920101511/notebooks/BDQSkIwoQ3ZrF6pYi/NDSSOIgoQg__71psi2007-04-04T04:34:08.387Z2008-09-05T04:47:30.943ZRisk
The probability that a particular undesirable result of...<div> </div>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">Risk</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"></span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">The <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSaYIgoQ896Xhewh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">probability</font></span></a> that a particular undesirable result of a choice or option has of occurring.</span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">The <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ0HIwoQn6P___Yh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">situation</font></span></a> involves an <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ0HIwoQ2_zfyPgh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">action</font></span></a> resulting from an outcome which is not known with certainty, </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Tahoma">but the set of outcomes and their relative <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSaYIgoQ896Xhewh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">probabilities</font></span></a> are <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQlbIgoQt47yzvch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">known</font></span></a> or can be <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/07491261619920101511/BDRqeIgoQ0Nu17bIi"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">estimated</font></span></a></span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">.</span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Tahoma">How</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Tahoma"> </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Tahoma">significant</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> any such risk – </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ee0000;font-family:Tahoma">a non-certain</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDR1XIgoQ2_7dzvch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">outcome</font></span></a> – </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ee0000;font-family:Tahoma">is</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> depends upon the <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRPpIgoQ6cTE_f8h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">likelihood</font></span></a> of the adverse <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQX9IgoQ-v-S-fch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">consequence</font></span></a> combined with </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ee0000;font-family:Tahoma">how unpleasant</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> this consequence might be. The prospect of a catastrophic <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSzpIgoQyu-Gyfgh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">event</font></span></a> capable of ending human civilization such as the impact with earth of a large, rocky </span><span style="font-size:8pt;color:red;font-family:Verdana">“</span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">heavenly body</span><span style="font-size:8pt;color:red;font-family:Verdana">”</span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> which may be averted by deploying a spacecraft to deflect it is worth serious <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSBGIgoQhKvxj_wh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">consideration</font></span></a> </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ee0000;font-family:Tahoma">even if</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> the immediate likelihood of an impact is very small.</span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">A distinction can be made between <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRzpIgoQyv3Rzvch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">uncertainty</font></span></a> and risk in that the latter <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/07491261619920101511/BDQcjIgoQgpOKko4i"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">term</font></span></a> </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#cc0000;font-family:Verdana">always</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> involves <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRQYIwoQ6rbZ__Yh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">decision</font></span></a></span><font color="#990000"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ff4040;font-family:Arial"> </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ0HIwoQn6P___Yh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">situations</font></span></a></span></font><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ff4040;font-family:Arial"> </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">in which the probabilities are (very largely) known.</span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">Back to:</span></i></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"> </span></i><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ2OIgoQnpe-uJki"><em><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary A-C</font></span></b></em></a><font color="#b45f06"><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRhPIgoQmZTPsoci"><em><b><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary D-H</font></span></b></em></a></span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQtPIgoQyMrOsoci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary I-P</font></span></em></a></span></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRy4IgoQzJvOsoci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary Q-S</font></span></em></a></span></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"><font color="#b45f06">,</font> </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQlbIgoQ0cGdiYci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary T-Z</font></span></em></a></span></b></font><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"></span></i></b></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><b><i><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff6600"><a href="http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-uK4ZpvghfrI43fmUf6_mPYV2"><span style="color:#ff6600"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#b45f06">Glossary of selected Judgement & Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology terms A-Z »</font></span></a></span></i></b><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ff6600;font-family:Arial"></span></i></b></p></div></span>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://au.blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-.FMiD883dLQMqPRiPt7374.4qsD7fK8gzLK8vTNolrsY"><span style="color:#33ccff"><font face="arial,sans-serif" color="#45818e">»</font></span></a><a href="http://au.blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-.FMiD883dLQMqPRiPt7374.4qsD7fK8gzLK8vTNolrsY"><font face="arial,sans-serif"><font color="#45818e"><span style="color:#33ccff"> </span><span style="color:#33cc00">Return to </span><span style="color:#009900">belief, judgement, and clear thinking</span><span style="color:#33ccff"> »</span></font></font></a> </span></p>
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<div> </div>Addendum to Glossary