http://www.google.com/notebook/feeds/09859336497580798442/notebooks/BDQ0HIwoQlI61wfEh2008-07-14T06:25:11.110ZProbabilistic principle Glossary of selected Judgement and Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology termsGoogle Notebook1110http://www.google.com/notebook/feeds/09859336497580798442/notebooks/BDQ0HIwoQlI61wfEh/NDQSkIwoQs7qp06Ui2007-05-05T04:05:59.219Z2008-07-14T06:25:11.110ZProbabilistic principle The principlethat human behavioura...<div> </div> <div> </div> <div> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">Probabilistic principle</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"></span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">The <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRhPIgoQzZ3Up_Yh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">principle</font></span></a> that human <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRy4IgoQ16f0-Pch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">behaviour</font></span></a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ0HIwoQ2_zfyPgh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">action</font></span></a> is probabilistic in nature, involving </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQqFIwoQoLP3vPIh"><i><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">tendencies</font></span></i></a><span style="color:red"> for <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSzpIgoQyu-Gyfgh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">events</font></span></a> and actions to be <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRreIgoQgZK4_v8h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">related</font></span></a> to one another, with phenomena which are not perfectly <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSBGIgoQu4iz__Yh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">predictable</font></span></a>. Probabilistic <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/07491261619920101511/BDQX9IgoQ4faYxIwi"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">statements</font></span></a> elaborate <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ5DIgoQvO-SvvIh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">trends</font></span></a> which </span></span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">do not hold for all cases</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> of a given <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQNsIgoQoK-tp_Yh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">phenomenon</font></span></a> or event. Probabilistic <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSJLIgoQ6J3nt_Mh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">conclusions</font></span></a> are <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRPpIgoQidKp-fch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">generalizations</font></span></a> which apply more often than not, but are <em><font face="Tahoma" color="#ee0000">not</font></em></span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQtPIgoQ6Lrrzvch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">true</font></span></a> of or an <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQlbIgoQo7rFhoYi"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">accurate</font></span></a><font color="#990000"> </font><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQlbIgoQ7NqUuPwh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">representation</font></span></a> of </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">every single case</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">. Probabilistic <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRreIgoQgZK4_v8h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">relationships</font></span></a> are stated in terms of <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRPpIgoQ6cTE_f8h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">likelihoods</font></span></a> rather than <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRzpIgoQyv3Rzvch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">certainties</font></span></a>, for instance, 65% of subjects administering what they </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#cc0000;font-family:Verdana">thought</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> to be painful (and dangerous) electric shocks under a particular <span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRteIgoQyJbBqKgj"><span style="color:maroon"><font color="#990000">experimental condition</font></span></a></span> in <span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.stanleymilgram.com/"><span style="font-weight:normal;color:maroon"><font color="#990000">Milgram’s</font></span></a></span> </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"><span style="color:red"><span style="font-size:8pt;color:red;font-family:Verdana">‘</span></span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ5UIgoQ_b7ize4h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">obedience</font></span></a><span style="color:red"><span style="font-size:8pt;color:red;font-family:Verdana">’</span> research. There are exceptions to any probabilistic trend, however, a single counter-example - even a handful of counter-examples - does not disprove a probabilistic <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSXVIgoQgf72__Yh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">rule</font></span></a>.</span></span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"> </span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#c00000;font-family:Arial">Probabilistic</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"></span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#c00000;font-family:Arial">Of, relating to, or based upon <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSaYIgoQ896Xhewh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">probability</font></span></a></span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"><font face="Times New Roman"> (e.g., </font><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRQYIwoQ6rbZ__Yh"><span style="color:#990000;font-family:Arial"><font color="#990000">decisions</font></span></a><font face="Times New Roman">).</font></span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"></span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"> </span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">Probabilty may be <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ0HIwoQp6v9t_Mh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">defined</font></span></a> as the assessed </span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#cc0000;font-family:Verdana">degree</span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> of certainty that a particular event or <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRreIgoQgZK4_v8h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">relation</font></span></a> has of occurring.</span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"></span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"> </span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">(see also: </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQlHIgoQoczY-Poi"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">variability</font></span></a></span><font color="#990000"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">, </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRzpIgoQyv3Rzvch"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">uncertainty</font></span></a></span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">, </span><span style="font-size:8pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRepIgoQjaH_pKAj"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">statistical reasoning</font></span></a></span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">, <span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ5DIgoQ0snD4vwh"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">chance</font></span></a></span>, </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQNsIgoQufWB--0h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">Regression towards the mean</font></span></a></span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:#990000;font-family:Arial">,</span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDR1XIgoQod3Rp-0h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">sample bias</font></span></a></span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">, </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/07491261619920101511/BDQyWIwoQnISGjZki"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">control group</font></span></a></span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:#990000;font-family:Arial">,</span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> </span><span style="font-size:8pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ9jIgoQkcKnhZYj"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">alternative explanations</font></span></a></span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">, </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRzpIgoQ0a6lpO4h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">Non-occurrence neglect</font></span></a></span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:#990000;font-family:Arial">,</span><span style="font-size:7pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> </span><span style="font-size:8pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ7QIgoQn8POzJcj"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">Contributory cause</font></span></a></span></font><span style="font-size:7pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">)</span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:Arial"> </span></p> <div> <div> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">Back to:</span></i></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"> </span></i><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ2OIgoQnpe-uJki"><em><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary A-C</font></span></b></em></a><font color="#b45f06"><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRhPIgoQmZTPsoci"><em><b><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary D-H</font></span></b></em></a></span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQtPIgoQyMrOsoci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary I-P</font></span></em></a></span></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRy4IgoQzJvOsoci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary Q-S</font></span></em></a></span></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"><font color="#b45f06">,</font> </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQlbIgoQ0cGdiYci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary T-Z</font></span></em></a></span></b></font><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"></span></i></b></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> </span></p> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><b><i><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff6600"><a href="http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-uK4ZpvghfrI43fmUf6_mPYV2"><span style="color:#ff6600"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#b45f06">Glossary of selected Judgement &amp; Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology terms A-Z »</font></span></a></span></i></b><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ff6600;font-family:Arial"></span></i></b></p></div> <div> </div> <div><span><font color="#ff4040"><font color="#ff0000"> <div><span><span><font color="#ff4040"><font color="#ff0000"><span><span><font color="#ff4040"><font color="#ff0000"><span><span><span><font color="#ff4040"><font color="#ff0000"><a href="http://au.blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-.FMiD883dLQMqPRiPt7374.4qsD7fK8gzLK8vTNolrsY"><font color="#33ccff">»</font></a><a href="http://au.blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-.FMiD883dLQMqPRiPt7374.4qsD7fK8gzLK8vTNolrsY"><span><font color="#33ccff"> </font></span><span><font color="#33cc00">Return to </font></span><span><font color="#009900">belief, judgement, and clear thinking</font></span><span><font color="#33ccff"> »</font></span></a></font></font></span></span></span></font></font></span></span></font></font></span></span></div></font></font></span></div> <div> </div></div></div> <div> </div>Glossary of selected Judgement and Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology terms