http://www.google.com/notebook/feeds/09859336497580798442/notebooks/BDQlbIgoQzeCzwvoh2008-06-25T07:41:55.411Zunwarranted confidence Glossary of selected Judgement and Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology termsGoogle Notebook1110http://www.google.com/notebook/feeds/09859336497580798442/notebooks/BDQlbIgoQzeCzwvoh/NDQRcIgoQ3462wvoh2006-12-22T03:56:30.431Z2008-06-25T07:41:55.411ZUnwarranted Confidence
People seem to be unduly confident of their j...<div> </div>
<div><span><font color="#ff0000"><em><font color="#990000">Un</font></em><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRzpIgoQ16D37_kh"><font color="#990000"><em>warranted</em></font></a><em> Confidence</em></font></span>
<div><span><font color="#ff4040"><em><font face="Verdana" color="#cc0000">People seem to be unduly confident of their</font></em> <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRh0IgoQt7bl3PQh"><font color="#990000"><em>judgement</em></font></a></font></span><span><font color="#ff4040"> <em><font face="Verdana" color="#cc0000">abilities</font></em>. When we cannot be sure that a <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQqFIwoQ4dfEt_Mh"><font color="#990000">belief</font></a> is <span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQlbIgoQo7rFhoYi"><span><font color="#990000">accurate</font></span></a></span> (or very <span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSaYIgoQ896Xhewh"><span><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#990000">probably</font></span></a></span> <span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQtPIgoQ6Lrrzvch"><span><font color="#990000">true</font></span></a></span>), it is reasonable that our confidence</font></span><span><font color="#ff4040"> in the belief be in proportion to the<font color="#ff0000"> </font><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQNsIgoQ6szzt_Mh"><font color="#990000">evidence</font></a><font color="#ff0000"> </font>available. <span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSXVIgoQ3tT3pO4h"><font color="#990000">Appropriate confidence</font></a></span></font></span><span><font color="#ff4040"> is often a more realistic goal than <span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRzpIgoQyv3Rzvch"><span><font color="#990000">certainty</font></span></a></span>. A major advantage of accurate beliefs is that this increases the <span><font color="#ff0000"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRPpIgoQ6cTE_f8h"><font color="#990000">likelihood</font></a></font></span> that better <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRQYIwoQ6rbZ__Yh"><font color="#990000">decisions</font></a> will be made. If our confidence depends appropriately on the evidence we have, and is updated as new evidence emerges, we will take the calculated <span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/07491261619920101511/BDQSkIwoQ3ZrF6pYi"><span><font color="#990000">risks</font></span></a></span> we ought to take, and when action requires certainty, we will withhold action if we cannot be certain. <em><font face="Verdana" color="#cc0000">It is desirable that people should have some feeling for how <span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRPpIgoQ6cTE_f8h"><span><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#990000">likely</font></span></a></span> it is they may be</font> <span><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSrpIgoQrKWR6YQi"><span><font color="#990000">wrong</font></span></a></span></em>. A key to evading unwarranted confidence appears to be close attendance to accurate <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSTDIgoQ2ojDlfUi"><font color="#990000"><em>feedback</em></font></a></font></span><span><font color="#ff4040">. (and practice!)</font></span></div>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ff4040;font-family:Arial">(see also: </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQNsIgoQuo3e9u4h"><span style="color:maroon"><font face="arial,sans-serif" color="#990000">Illusion of validity</font></span></a></span><font face="arial,sans-serif"><font color="#990000"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ff4040;font-family:Arial">,</span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial"> <a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSXVIgoQ3tT3pO4h"><span style="color:#990000"><font color="#990000">Calibration of judgement</font></span></a><font color="#990000">,</font> </span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:maroon;font-family:Arial"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDSJLIgoQtd6pou8h"><span style="color:maroon"><font color="#990000">Predictive value, Redundancy, and Confidence</font></span></a></span></font></font><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red;font-family:Arial">)</span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ff4040;font-family:Arial"></span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">Back to:</span></i></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"> </span></i><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQ2OIgoQnpe-uJki"><em><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary A-C</font></span></b></em></a><font color="#b45f06"><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRhPIgoQmZTPsoci"><em><b><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary D-H</font></span></b></em></a></span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQtPIgoQyMrOsoci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary I-P</font></span></em></a></span></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red">, </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDRy4IgoQzJvOsoci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary Q-S</font></span></em></a></span></b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"><font color="#b45f06">,</font> </span></i><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><a href="http://www.google.com/notebook/public/09859336497580798442/BDQlbIgoQ0cGdiYci"><em><span style="color:#ff9933;font-family:Tahoma"><font color="#b45f06">Glossary T-Z</font></span></em></a></span></b></font><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:red"></span></i></b></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><b><i><span style="font-size:10pt;color:#ff6600"><a href="http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-uK4ZpvghfrI43fmUf6_mPYV2"><span style="color:#ff6600"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#b45f06">Glossary of selected Judgement & Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology terms A-Z »</font></span></a></span></i></b><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;color:#ff6600;font-family:Arial"></span></i></b></p></span></span></span></div>
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<div> </div>Glossary of selected Judgement and Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology terms