Prediction A statement about what will be observedbefore it...

2006-12-11T05:14:23.182Z

Prediction

A statement about what will be observed before it actually occurs or a forecast about the likelihood or probability of an event's outcome made prior to its actual occurrence – a claim in which it is stated some phenomenon will take place within a specific set of circumstances. Scientific prediction involves detailed knowledge of the phenomena of interest such as relevant facts and principles. Accurate prediction is regarded as a stringent test of a scientific hypothesis or theory.

u	How much variation is there in the data, and to what extent can variation resulting from measurement or observational error be distinguished from true phenomenal variation?
u	The better the quality of data collected (and especially in conjunction with larger data sets), the better the chances of ascertaining a clearer picture of the phenomenon’s behaviour;
u	What is the relative base rate information?
u	What is the validity of the information source(s) – to what degree, if at all, does the information meaningfully support ‘predictiveness’?
u	What is the reliability of information source(s), what is the margin of error for the information? – extreme predictions based upon extreme observations from data sources of poor reliability are likely to have lower predictive validity (see regression);
u	Redundancy and validity should be discriminated in assessing the likely predictive value of the information – consistency between data sources is only a good cue to confidence in prediction to the degree to which the sources of information are not redundant;
u	To what extent might alternative explanations account for the data?
u	Is it possible for any predictions made to be rigourously tested?

†cf. Postdiction

A statement about an event's prior outcome, but made subsequent to its occurrence.

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