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Risk The probability that a particular undesirable result of a choice or option has of occurring.
The situation involves an action resulting from an outcome which is not known with certainty, but the set of outcomes and their relative probabilities are known or can be estimated.
How significant any such risk – a non-certain outcome – is depends upon the likelihood of the adverse consequence combined with how unpleasant this consequence might be. The prospect of a catastrophic event capable of ending human civilization such as the impact with earth of a large, rocky “heavenly body” which may be averted by deploying a spacecraft to deflect it is worth serious consideration even if the immediate likelihood of an impact is very small.
A distinction can be made between uncertainty and risk in that the latter term always involves decision situations in which the probabilities are (very largely) known.
Judgements about risk can be influenced by actors’ value assumptions, especially when such assessments have tangible importance in the lives of real people, that is, the assessments of risk are by no means merely “of academic interest”. For example, in relation to the issue of environmental toxins a person who holds an outlook that industry is subjected to too much regulation may view a lesser degree of certainty as strengthening the possibility that a particular substance is not really dangerous, while a person who views exposure to environmental toxins as a major health problem might be inclined to interpret this lower certainty as concealing the possibility that the substance in question is far more dangerous than has been documented to date. The information each assessor is using is the same, but these assumptions have affected how they view the evidence.
The quality and worth of risk assessments will be improved by critically scrutinizing the assessment process in terms of both factual analysis and an explicit understanding of the value assumptions decision-makers bring to the task.
“Risk ratio”. The establishment of the proportional relation – expressed numerically – describing the likelihood of injury or damage which may be sustained or incurred after exposure to the adverse circumstance or factor, for example, the risk ratio for lung cancer from smoking is well over 30:1 or a 3,000 per cent increase in the incidence of lung cancer amongst smokers as against non-smokers.
Cf. potential benefits, see also: opportunity costs, Framing.
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risk, the probability that a particular undesirable result of a choice or option has of occurring, risk ratio |