Probabilistic principle

The principle that human behaviour and action is probabilistic in nature, involving tendencies for events and actions to be related to one another, with phenomena which are not perfectly predictable. Probabilistic statements elaborate trends which do not hold for all cases of a given phenomenon or event. Probabilistic conclusions are generalizations which apply more often than not, but are not true of or an accurate representation of every single case. Probabilistic relationships are stated in terms of likelihoods rather than certainties, for instance, 65% of subjects administering what they thought to be painful (and dangerous) electric shocks under a particular experimental condition in Milgram’s ‘obedience’ research. There are exceptions to any probabilistic trend, however, a single counter-example - even a handful of counter-examples - does not disprove a probabilistic rule.

(see also: Bayes' theorem, variability, uncertainty, statistical reasoning, chance, Regression towards the mean, sample bias, control group, alternative explanations, Non-occurrence neglect, Contributory cause, judgement, decision-making, attitude, Decision analysis, decision-making under uncertainty, standard deviation, statistic, distribution, Law of large numbers)