Conjunction fallacy
 

 

Conjunction fallacy
The error of judging that a combination of two qualities is more probable than the occurrence of one on its own.

 

For example, when given a behavioural thumbnail sketch about an hypothetical person, offered two conclusions about the character described in the sketch, and asked to select which answer is the more probable most subjects choose the less-probable alternative. Such thinking permeates beyond the laboratory.

 

The error is not explained by research participants’ misunderstanding of what probable means.

 

(see also: Representativeness heuristic, clustering illusion, Regression towards the mean, pattern-seeking)

 

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which of the following statements about Linda is more probable? (1) She is a bank teller. (2) She is a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement.

 

 
Labels: Conjunction fallacy
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