Illusion of validity

People's proneness to experience a great deal of confidence in situations where their judgements are most likely to be highly fallible. Actors' intuitive predictions are frequently insufficiently regressive and so discrepancies between predictions and outcomes are largest at the extremes.

The greater the amount of information people have about events and situations the more confident they become in their judgements about those events or situations even when the nature of the information held or their ability to adequately evaluate the information substantially limits predictive accuracy.

People have a tendency to remember successful outcomes and to discount or disregard the unsuccessful, bolstering judgemental confidence, while also showing a lesser inclination to seek or properly consider disconfirming evidence.

(see also: Calibration of judgement, Predictive value, Redundancy, and Confidence, regressive fallacy)