Multiple endpoint fuzziness or the Nostradamus effect

The failure to carefully specify the meaning of various outcomes in advance when considering evidence probative to the merits of particular claims or hypotheses. When it is not precisely indicated the kind of evidence which will count as support (or as unsupportive) actors can end up ‘detecting’ too much evidence for their preconceptions. By neglecting this kind of precise specification of what constitutes ‘success’ and ‘failure’ people's preconceptions frequently lead them to interpret the meaning of various outcomes in ways which favour initial expectations. Another way of expressing this is that one's expectations can often be confirmed by any set of “multiple end points” after the fact, some of which would not have been acceptable as criteria for success beforehand. Any reluctance to adequately define and clearly describe subject, key terms, and outcomes is likely to exacerbate a proneness to “finding out what we ‘already know’”.

(see also: Predictive value, Redundancy, and Confidence)

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