Unwarranted Confidence People seem to be unduly confident of their judgement abilities. When we cannot be sure that a belief is accurate (or very probably true), it is reasonable that our confidence in the belief be in proportion to the evidence available. Appropriate confidence is often a more realistic goal than certainty. A major advantage of accurate beliefs is that this increases the likelihood that better decisions will be made. If our confidence depends appropriately on the evidence we have, and is updated as new evidence emerges, we will take the calculated risks we ought to take, and when action requires certainty, we will withhold action if we cannot be certain. It is desirable that people should have some feeling for how likely it is they may be wrong. A key to evading unwarranted confidence appears to be close attendance to accurate feedback. (and practice!)   (see also: Illusion of validity, Calibration of judgement, Predictive value, Redundancy, and Confidence)     » Return to belief, judgement, and clear thinking »   Labels: unwarranted confidence, confidence unwarranted

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