Underestimating co-incidence
Last edited
June 25, 2008
More by Glossary of selected Judgement and Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology terms »
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Underestimating co-incidence
The tendency of people to be poor at taking all pairings of an event into account when estimating the probability of co-incidences. For example, if there are twenty three people in a room (selected randomly) the probability of at least two of them having a birthday on the same date of the year is over half. People tend to think of twenty three pairings, but altogether there are (23 x 22/2=) 253 such pairings and the members of any pairing can have the same birthday.
(see also: likelihood, Law of large numbers).
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Glossary of selected Judgement & Decision-making, Belief-related, and other Psychology terms A-Z » Labels:
underestimating co-incidence, underestimating coincidence, underestimation of co-incidence, underestimation of coincidence, co-incidence – underestimate, when estimating the probability of co-incidences – tendency to be poor at taking all pairings of an event into account |