clustering illusion
 
 

Clustering illusion

The observation that people frequently view random distributions, for example, sequences of coin-tosses, as seeming to have too many clusters or streaks of consecutive outcomes of the same type, and their consequent difficulty in accepting the arbitrary nature of events. Dubbed an illusion due to the fact that the effect is not easily eliminated by further exposures. See also The Law of small numbers (http://repositories.cdlib.org/iber/econ/E00-282/) by Kahneman & Tversky. 

 

(see also: cognitive illusionGambler's fallacy, pattern-seeking, underestimating co-incidence, 'Law of small numbers')

 

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