Clustering illusion

The observation that people frequently view random distributions, for example, sequences of coin-tosses, as seeming to have too many clusters or ‘streaks’ of consecutive outcomes of the same type, and their consequent difficulty in accepting the arbitrary nature of events. Dubbed an illusion due to the fact that the effect is not easily eliminated by further exposures.

The phenomenon is closely related to Kahneman & Tversky’s Law of small numbers.

(see also: cognitive illusion, Gambler's fallacy, pattern-seeking, underestimating co-incidence, regressive fallacy)

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