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Prediction A statement about what will be observed before it actually occurs or a forecast about the likelihood or probability of an event's outcome made prior to its actual occurrence – a claim in which it is stated some phenomenon will take place within a specific set of circumstances. Scientific prediction involves detailed knowledge of the phenomena of interest such as relevant facts and principles. Accurate prediction is regarded as a stringent test of a scientific hypothesis or theory.
uHow much variation is there in the data, and to what extent can variation resulting from measurement or observational error be distinguished from true phenomenal variation? uThe better the quality of data collected (and especially in conjunction with larger data sets), the better the chances of ascertaining a clearer picture of the phenomenon’s behaviour; uWhat is the relative base rate information? uWhat is the validity of the information source(s) – to what degree, if at all, does the information meaningfully support ‘predictiveness’? uWhat is the reliability of information source(s), what is the margin of error for the information? – extreme predictions based upon extreme observations from data sources of poor reliability are likely to have lower predictive validity (see regression); uRedundancy and validity should be discriminated in assessing the likely predictive value of the information – consistency between data sources is only a good cue to confidence in prediction to the degree to which the sources of information are not redundant; uTo what extent might alternative explanations account for the data? uIs it possible for any predictions made to be rigourously tested?
†cf. Postdiction A statement about an event's prior outcome, but made subsequent to its occurrence.
(see also: actuarial prediction, predictiveness, explanation, expectation, Hindsight bias)
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prediction, predict, scientific prediction, postdiction |