prediction
 

 

Prediction

A statement about what will be observed before it actually occurs or a forecast about the likelihood or probability of an event's outcome made prior to its actual occurrence – a claim in which it is stated some phenomenon will take place within a specific set of circumstances. Scientific prediction involves detailed knowledge of the phenomena of interest such as relevant facts and principles. Accurate prediction is regarded as a stringent test of a scientific hypothesis or theory.

 

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How much variation is there in the data, and to what extent can variation resulting from measurement or observational error be distinguished from true phenomenal variation?

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The better the quality of data collected (and especially in conjunction with larger data sets), the better the chances of ascertaining a clearer picture of the phenomenon’s behaviour;

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What is the relative base rate information?

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What is the validity of the information source(s) – to what degree, if at all, does the information meaningfully support ‘predictiveness’?

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What is the reliability of information source(s), what is the margin of error for the information? – extreme predictions based upon extreme observations from data sources of poor reliability are likely to have lower predictive validity (see regression);

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Redundancy and validity should be discriminated in assessing the likely predictive value of the information – consistency between data sources is only a good cue to confidence in prediction to the degree to which the sources of information are not redundant;

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To what extent might alternative explanations account for the data?

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Is it possible for any predictions made to be rigourously tested?

 

 

cf. Postdiction

A statement about an event's prior outcome, but made subsequent to its occurrence.

 

(see also: actuarial prediction, predictivenessexplanation, expectationHindsight bias)

 

 

  

 
Labels: prediction, predict, scientific prediction, postdiction
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