Possibilities (bare)

We should be alert to bare possibilities in contrast to possibilities which have a substantial chance of crystallizing.

If one were to jump off a cliff with, say, a 200-ft. drop (without precautions), it is possible that a gust of wind might save us by wafting us back to safety – a realistic yet exceedingly unlikely outcome. A much more serious possibility is that, should we make the jump, we will perish from impact injuries at the base of the cliff.

Openmindedness to possibilities is a positive element in critical thinking, but only to the extent that it is tempered by an understanding of the credibility of different or competing potential outcomes, taking into account the background information to put the possibilities into their proper perspective.

(see also: alternative explanations, Probability, topical incompleteness)

 » Return to belief, judgement, and clear thinking »