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Info-gap decision theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Info-gap_decision_theory The maximin rule tells us to rank alternatives by their worst possible outcomes: we are to adopt the alternative the worst outcome of which is superior to the worst outcome of the others.
The most common application of the concept in economics is in the behavioural theory of the firm, which, unlike traditional accounts, postulates that producers treat profit not as a goal to be maximized, but as a constraint. Under these theories, a critical level of profit must be achieved by firms; thereafter, priority is attached to the attainment of other goals.
This is much like self-actualization and the hierarchy of needs. You can't achieve your greatest potential if you're worried about basic needs like food, shelter, etc. Likewise if a corporation *only* worried about maximum profit they will miss other opportunities to improve the overall health of the organization that may or may not have anything to do with profit. Satisficing is a decision-making strategy which attempts to meet criteria for adequacy, rather than to identify an optimal solution. A satisficing strategy may often, in fact, be (near) optimal if the costs of the decision-making process itself, such as the cost of obtaining complete information, are considered in the outcome calculus.
Decision-making always has a cost, usually incurred through the attainment of knowledge. Analysis paralysis. It is not enough to espouse systems thinking, to say, "We must look at the big picture and take the long-term view." It is not enough to appreciate basic systems principles, as expressed in the laws of the fifth discipline or as revealed in simulations such as the beer game. It is not even enough to see a particular structure underlying a particular problem (perhaps with the help of a consultant). This can lead to solving a problem, but it will not change the thinking that produced the problem in the first place. For learning organizations, only when managers start thinking in terms of the systems archetypes, does systems thinking become an active daily agent, continually revealing how we create our reality.
-The Fifth Discipline by Peter M. Senge Structures of which we are unaware hold us prisoner. Conversely, learning to see the structures within which we operate begins a process of freeing ourselves from previously unseen forces and ultimately mastering the ability to work with them and change them.
-The Fifth Discipline by Peter M. Senge Systems and the application of systems thinking has been grouped into three categories based on the techniques used to tackle a system:
Morphological Analysis is an extension of Attribute Listing. Imagine you have a product that could be made of 3 types of material, in 6 possible shapes, and with 4 kinds of mechanism. Theoretically there are 72 (3x6x4) potential combinations of material, shape and mechanism. Some of these combinations may already exist; others may be impossible or impractical. Those left over may represent prospective new products. This method of can be extended to virtually any problem area that can be structured dimensionally.
Theoretically the Bullwhip effect does not occur if all orders exactly meet the demand of each period. This is consistent with findings of supply chain experts who have recognized that the Bullwhip Effect is a problem in forecast-driven supply chains, and careful management of the effect is an important goal for Supply Chain Managers.
Therefore it is necessary to extend the visibility of customer demand as far as possible. One way to achieve this is to establish a demand-driven supply chain which reacts to actual customer orders. In manufacturing, this concept is called Kanban. This model has been most successfully implemented in Wal-Mart's distribution system. Individual Wal-Mart stores transmit point-of-sale (POS) data from the cash register back to corporate headquarters several times a day. This demand information is used to queue shipments from the Wal-Mart distribution center to the store and from the supplier to the Wal-Mart distribution center. The result is near-perfect visibility of customer demand and inventory movement throughout the supply chain. Better information leads to better inventory positioning and lower costs throughout the supply chain. Barriers to the implementation of a demand-driven supply chain include the necessary investment in information technology and the creation of a corporate culture of flexibility and focus on customer demand. Another prerequisite is that all members of a supply chain recognize that they can gain more if they act as a whole which requires trustful collaboration and information sharing. Pushing harder and harder on familiar solutions, while fundamental problems persist or worsen, is a reliable indicator of non-systemic thinking -- what we often call the "what we need here is a bigger hammer" syndrome.
-The Fifth Discipline by Peter Senge Holonics is a generic term in psychology that refers to the theory of spiral dynamics. In this context it refers to the development of cultural value systems which are discrete in themselves (memes) and also part of a larger value system ("memeplex"). A simple characterisation which is familiar to some is Maslow's hierarchy of needs in which a basic value system is "I must eat", which once satisfied remains, but is added to with "I want friends".
A holon is a system (or phenomenon) that is a whole in itself as well as a part of a larger system. It can be conceived as systems nested within each other. Every system can be considered a holon, from a subatomic particle to the universe as a whole. On a non-physical level, words, ideas, sounds, emotions—everything that can be identified—is simultaneously part of something, and can be viewed as having parts of its own, similar to sign in regard of semiotics.
Spiral Dynamics argues that human nature is not fixed: humans are able, when forced by life conditions, to adapt to their environment by constructing new, more complex, conceptual models of the world that allow them to handle the new problems. Each new model includes and transcends all previous models. According to Beck and Cowan, these conceptual models are organized around so-called vMemes: systems of core values or collective intelligences, applicable to both individuals and entire cultures.
Holonics is a generic term in psychology that refers to the theory of spiral dynamics. In this context it refers to the development of cultural value systems which are discrete in themselves (memes) and also part of a larger value system ("memeplex"). A simple characterisation which is familiar to some is Maslow's hierarchy of needs in which a basic value system is "I must eat", which once satisfied remains, but is added to with "I want friends".
"4. How can niches compete with the big companies? Anderson explains that you need to offer something the Wal Marts don’t have. Example -- have an online bookstore that only deals in science fiction."
Al Ries & Jack Trout's theory of Positioning. - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positioning_%28marketing%29 Egon Zehnder International - - The limits of the alpha male
www.egonzehnderknowledge.com/knowledge/content/art... Nature teaches the benefits of self-organizing behavior
Explains complexity studies in a down-to-Earth fashion. The myth of "self organization" explained. | Clipmarks
clipmarks.com/clipmark/0ADD544E-CB9D-4821-A12D-E3B... A cell will die (increase in entropy, or decay) if it dose not receive nutrition from outside itself. Fortunately, the cell is an open system, meaning it can take in energy from the outside environment (nutrition) and put back out an equal amount of energy (heat and entropy), keeping the cell alive (causing order) by reducing the increasing entropy (decay), causing it to neither fall nor rise. This is "self ordering" and not "self organizing," a VERY big difference.
Order is the systematic arrangement of something, meaning the "order" mentioned above is referring to an arrangement "of, characterized by, based on, or constituting a system" (Dictionary.com definition for systematic). Organizing, on the other hand, is taking a system and adding information (from out side) to make it work better then before. Thing is, "self organization" requires a lack of external information (hence the word "self"). Self-ordering vs. Self-organization - There's a difference. Food for thought! Geek To Live: Getting Things Done with Google Notebook - Lifehacker
lifehacker.com/software/geek-to-live/getting-thing... "First things first: if you haven't read Getting Things Done, you're missing out. The fast read is well worth the 9 bucks, and even if it doesn't turn you into a full-on disciple of The David, it will at least install the seeds of some new good habits into your cluttered, distracted mind. For the reader's digest version, check out the Getting Things Done Wikipedia page. Second: why Google Notebook? While there are dozens of online list makers, Google Notebook is flexible enough (ie, not just a list) for you to work and tweak your GTD system to your liking. It can capture information anywhere on the web with a mature browser extension and it comes with Google's signature killer search capabilities. Plus, using Notebook's collaboration features, you could allow your spouse or co-worker to drop things into your Inbox for you to process later. Sure, desktop apps like Thinking Rock and iGTD are cool, but for people who live in a web browser, Notebook automatically includes links in notes (including individual Gmail messages) and its contents are available from any computer where you're logged into your Google Account." This most definitely counts as 'self-organization.' Triarchy refers to the three fundamental ways of getting things done in organizations: hierarchy, heterarchy and responsible autonomy. All organizations use a mixture of these three ways, but the proportions can differ widely. At present, hierarchy is usually considered essential for all organizations. Heterarchy and responsible autonomy are often misunderstood or neglected. Which does your team or organization use? "A heterarchical structure processes more information more effectively than hierarchical design. An example of the potential effectiveness of heterarchy would be the rapid growth of the heterarchical Wikipedia project in comparison with the failed growth of the Nupedia project. Heterarchy increasingly trumps hierarchy as complexity and rate of change increase."
With the exception of companies like Google, most organizations use a Command & Control hierarchy. This is a problem for software or technology companies as complexity and rate of change are very high. This paper examines how to apply scale-free network in business development, and use it to grow the business into unbeatable success.
1. First, you weave the scale free web by licensing your products to key hubs in the industry. Important point here is to have a clear understanding of the map of the industry and license it to every major player so that you can reach every node within few steps. 2. Once you have woven the scale free web, that network has to function. So you “tip it” by creating an event that everyone understands there is a network to do business. Once they realize that, they will communicate with each other and start to spread the word. It is also important that nodes can do business with other nodes. Otherwise, nodes will see no reason to be connected and dissipate. If nodes think that there is money to be made within the network, the network will thrive and bring in new nodes. 3. Once the scale free network is working and thriving, you will find that every node in the network is using your product and that they are connected direct to you. Then you are omnipresent. You’ve created the star topology on top of the existing industry scale free network. This is when you condensate the scale free network into star network and winner takes all. How do you do it? Just announce an upgrade. There are two ways to reach omnipresence in a scale free network. 1. The first method is as Microsoft, license to as many hubs as possible that you can reach the furthest part of web. 2. The second is to acquire the key hubs until you gather enough to reach everyone in the network. Identifying the key hub is important. If you make a mistake of paying for a hub that has few links to the space in which you want to grow, the strategy does not work. Choosing one of the above two strategies depends on the strength of the initial product that you have. If your product is strong and that there is a high threshold of entry, then you license out. If your product is weak and has low level of market entry, you gather as much money as fast as possible and go on acquisition binge. Define your own network and become the biggest hub in it! Once you've done that, let everyone know you're the hub. A scale-free network is a noteworthy kind of complex network because many "real-world networks" fall into this category. In scale-free networks, some nodes act as "highly connected hubs" (high degree), although most nodes are of low degree. Scale-free networks' structure and dynamics are independent of the system's size N, the number of nodes the system has. In other words, a network that is scale-free will have the same properties no matter what the number of its nodes is. See Power Laws, 80/20 or Pareto Principle. A scale-free network means that 80/20 rule applies no matter how big or small the network is. Why The Rich Get RicherScience Daily — A new theory shows how wealth, in different forms, can stick to some but not to others. The findings have implications ranging from the design of the Internet to economics. Real-world data -- whether distributions of wealth, size of earthquakes or number of connections on a computer network -- often follow power-law distributions rather than the familiar bell-shaped curve. In a power-law distribution, large events are reasonably common compared to smaller events. Networks often show power laws. They can be caused by the "rich get richer" effect, also known as "preferential attachment," where nodes gain new connections in proportion to how many they already have. That means some nodes end up with many more connections than others. The phenomenon is well known, but had been assumed to be just a fundamental property of networks. Raissa D'Souza, an assistant professor at the Department of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering and the Center for Computational Science and Engineering at UC Davis, together with colleagues at Microsoft Research in Redmond, Wash., UCLA and Cornell University, looked at how "preferential attachment" can arise in networks. "'The rich get richer' makes sense for wealth, but why would it happen for Internet routers?" she said. D'Souza and colleagues found that they could make tradeoffs between the network distance between nodes and the number of connections between them. By tweaking the conditions, they could make preferential attachment -- a power-law distribution of the number of connections -- stronger or weaker. These tradeoffs in networks are an underlying principle behind preferential attachment, D'Souza said. The general framework could be extended to all kinds of different networks, in biology, engineering, computer science or social sciences. "It's exciting because it shows the origins of something that we had assumed as axiomatic," D'Souza said. The other authors on the study, which is published online in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, are Christian Borgs and Jennifer T. Chayes at Microsoft Research, Noam Berger at UCLA and Robert D. Keinberg at Cornell University. A figure from the study will also be used for the cover art of the April 10 print issue of the journal. In summary, the rich or their companies, products, sources of revenue represent hubs with large numbers of 'short' incoming links from other nodes (customers). In other words, a successful product or person is taking up a large portion of a network. How do you define a network? Well that's what Branding is for. Focused improvement in theory of constraints is the ensemble of activities aimed at elevating the performance of any system, especially a business system, with respect to its goal by eliminating its constraints one by one and by not working on non-constraints. In other words become more efficient by applying a process of elimination to all the problems you face. LevelsEach level improves on the next. Because each level is fundamentally different it produces 10 - 100 times the productivity of the previous level. Level 1 – Human powerHuman power is anything done by a person without any tools. The only way to increase productivity at this level is to add more people or work more hours Level 2 – Simple ToolsSimple tools focus human power to increase the productivity of each person. There's a wider range of improvements. A stone ax can be improved to a steel ax or a saw. But productivity is limited by physical capability of a person. Examples: Saw, hammer, magnifying glass, paper & pencil, stairs, bucket. Level 3 – External PowerExternal Power is where you start seeing big improvements. This level is where brain over brawn really becomes a factor. Again the range is wider. It can be as simple as harnessing an animal or the wind right up to electricity, gasoline engines and nuclear power. Examples: telephone, horse drawn carriage, automobile, chain saw, fire. Level 4 – OrganizationOrganization is all about information. This level is an amplifier to any other level. You can add Level 4 to any other level but you don’t see significant improvements until you have the productivity of Level 3 to multiply. Examples: Assembly line, specialization. Level 5 – AutomationLevel 5 is automation, the highest level. At this point the technology is acting as a person would. In essence the whole scale has started again with the technology being the new Level 1. Examples: anti-lock brakes, voice mail, Internet, robots, genetic engineering. In modern society I think most people hover around Level 3 or Level 4. This is the use of tools to get jobs done, and organizing the people and tools in the appropriate way. Level 5 is the Realm of the Robot Gods. See Wal-mart and their automatic inventory tracking and update systems. Why do 88% of Ideas Fail to Make it to Market?
www.markproffitt.com/2007/02/21/why-do-88-of-ideas...  1. Reveal Emerging expectations 2. Generate Ideas 3. Render Ideas Feasible 4. Make New Products 5. Communicate value to customers 6. Deliver New Products 7. Get and use customer feedback The successful innovation system must be:
Combining the 7-steps with the 7- qualities and the requirements of “giving all participants compelling reasons to use the system” plus “matching the companies other processes and approaches” you have 51 Criteria for a Complete Innovation System. It's interesting to note 'Generate Ideas' and 'Render Ideas Feasible' and 'Make New Products' are all separate processes. This is similar to Finke's Geneplore model, which separates idea generation from idea exploration. The twelve leverage points to intervene in a system were proposed by Donella Meadows, a scientist concerned with the environment. The leverage points, first published in 1997, were inspired by her attendance at a NAFTA meeting in the early 1990s where she realized that a very large new system was being proposed but the handles to control it were very small. Meadows, who worked in the field of systems analysis, proposed a scale of places to intervene in a system. Awareness and manipulation of these levers is an aspect of self-organization and can lead to collective intelligence. 1 - 4 of the leverage points involve thought process, worldview, paradigm... and the ability to change the structures that influence you. Hmm. Self-organization usually relies on four basic ingredients:
Yes, YOU. You and your processes. Who did you think they were talking about? :) |