Yesterday morning, Bush's national security briefing was, of all things, about Cuba.

Pablo Bachelet writes in the Miami Herald: "A wide-ranging report on U.S. policies toward Cuba's possible transition to democracy was officially presented to President Bush at a meeting Wednesday of the White House's National Security Council.

"The report by the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, co-chaired by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Cuban-American Secretary of Commerce, Carlos Gutierrez, makes recommendations to hasten the end of the island's communist government and assist the transition. . . .

"An early draft obtained last week by The Miami Herald included recommendations to create an $80 million fund to support democracy on the island, launch a diplomatic initiative to undermine Venezuela's backing of Castro and tighten the enforcement of the economic embargo against Cuba."

Albor Ruiz writes in his New York Daily News column: "The existence of such commission -- created by Bush three years ago and co-chaired by Secretary of State Rice and Secretary of Commerce Carlos Guti?rrez, a Cuban-American -- shows that the Iraq lesson has been lost on the White House.

"Yet, the lesson is clear: Independent nations don't go along easily with notions of 'democracy and political freedom' as defined by another country and forced down their throats by the very undemocratic method of foreign intervention.

"Last May the Organization of American States' secretary general, the Chilean Jos? Miguel Insulza, asked an obvious question: Why has Bush created an office to coordinate a transition in Cuba?

"Talking about Bush Insulza said: 'There is no transition [in Cuba] and it is not his country.' Who are you, he asked the President, to propose a transition in a country that is not yours?"

And Reuters reports: "Two senior Cuban officials charged on Wednesday that a report on the communist nation delivered to the Bush administration's National Security Council amounted to a blueprint for an Iraq-style regime change in the Caribbean. . . .

"The first chapter, entitled 'Hastening the End of the Castro Dictatorship: Transition not Succession,' includes a separate 'classified annex' of recommended actions.

" 'You can't accomplish what they propose without an invasion, without a war. . . . This plan implies a U.S. military invasion of Cuba, a direct U.S. intervention,' said Bruno Rodriquez, First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs."

But then the portrait starts to change. A year after 9/11, Bush and Cheney haven't adjusted their approach even though they know a lot more about the real threat than they did in 2001. Bush is still governing by instinct, Cheney is off in a world of his own, programs put in place during the initial emergency are continuing unabated, and political considerations — often vicious ones — are paramount in almost every area. Bush and Cheney are simply unable to adjust to a "long, hard slog," and the war on terror is treading water because there's no genuine, informed leadership from the White House.

More than a broad rationalization of mere hawkishness, the One Percent Doctrine is actually a justification for ignoring unwanted analysis. After all, nearly anything has a one percent chance of happening, and if that's the threshold for action, it means we can take action anytime we want. Under the OPD, there is literally no reason to waste time with analysis or policy discussions.

This, of course, is where Suskind ties in this book with his earlier one, The Price of Loyalty. The single most defining characteristic of George Bush's personality is his belief in his own instinct and his corresponding disdain for serious policy analysis. For Bush, the One Percent Doctrine is tailor made. He is contemptuous of policy discussions, and the OPD is the perfect excuse to ignore them.

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