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  1. [PDF]

    The Yield Curve as a Predictor of US Recessions

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    by A Estrella - Cited by 103 - Related articles
    Using the Yield Curve Spread. Four Quarters Ahead. Recession Probability. Value of Spread ..... Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper WP-92-7, ...
    www.ny.frb.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf

  2. Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

    The yield curve has predicted essentially every U.S. recession since 1950 with ..... However, the latter paper suggests that binary models of recessions are ... both slows down the economy and flattens (or even inverts) the yield curve. ...
    www.ny.frb.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html - Cached

  3. Fed Paper Looks at Yield Curve-Recession Connection - Real Time ...

    Aug 29, 2007 ... Fed Paper Looks at Yield Curve-Recession Connection ... The inverted yield curve is an unusual occurrence in which short-term interest rates ...
    blogs.wsj.com/.../fed-paper-looks-at-yield-curve-recession-connection/ - Cached
  4. [PDF]

    An Investigation of Inverted Yield Curves and Economic Downturns

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    by PF Cwik - 2004 - Cited by 6 - Related articles
    the yield curve tends to invert before a recession. Section 2.3 Estrella Models. The second set of papers presents theories about the statistical ...
    mises.org/etexts/cwik-dissertation.pdf - Similar

  5. Inverted Yield Curve—Recession Warning? | theTrumpet.com by the ...

    Jan 5, 2006 ... Since then, the inverted yield curve has only given two false signals. ... how “ each recession since 1978 produced major academic papers ...
    www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=2073.913.0.0 - Cached - Similar
  6. [PDF]

    The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practical Issues

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    by A Estrella - Related articles
    producing what economists call a yield curve inversion. Thus, .... of yield curve steepness into a probability of recession one year ..... Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper no. 2375. Estrella, Arturo. 2005.“Why Does the Yield ...
    www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci12-5.pdf

  7. Yield-Curve Recession Indicator Flashes Yellow: Caroline Baum ...

    Sep 5, 2006 ... That's the implication of a new paper by economists Arturo Estrella and Mary ... Laurent saw a steep/inverted yield curve as an incentive/ ...
    www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid...HQ&refer...

  8. FRB: Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Screen Reader ...

    Mar 16, 2006 ... In this paper, I consider a number of probit models using the yield ... Recession Prediction Using the Yield Curve: Alternative Probit Models .... involves an inverted yield curve with a high level of the funds rate. ...
    www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2006/200607/index.html - Cached - Similar

  9. Inverted yield curve: One step away from recession - by Leonard ...

    Evidence indicates an inverted yield curve leads to a possible recession. .... Where can you get coupons other than the Sunday paper? ...
    www.helium.com/.../102483-inverted-yield-curve-one-step-away-from- recession - Cached - Similar

  10. What Is The US Yield Curve Saying About The Economic Outlook ...

    Jan 19, 2010 ... Although the yield curve has made a poor job in forecasting the magnitude of ... is that an inverted yield curve indicates a recession in about a year, ... Wright in the paper “The yield curve and predicting recessions”. ...
    www.dailymarkets.com/.../what-is-the-us-yield-curve-saying-about-the- economic-outlook/ - Similar