The Future Is Open
Three years ago, Jonathan Rosenberg, then Google’s SVP of Product Management and now an advisor to Google management, wrote a memo outlining why open companies would win the future. Today, however, he finds a world that has outstripped even his wildest expectations.
Three years ago this December, I sent an email to my fellow Googlers,
attempting to pin a clear definition on a term being batted around quite a bit:
open. I was concerned that within our walls it meant different things to
different people, and that too many Googlers didn’t understand the company’s
fundamental commitment to the merits of being open. Referring to the two prongs
of open technology and open information, I outlined our underlying ethos of
transparency. Pursuing open systems, I argued, has led and would continue to
lead to two desirable outcomes: Google gets better and so does the world.
It was a plausible argument, and a later post on the Google blog, ‘The Meaning of Open’, helped further
clarify this sometimes-elusive concept. In the weeks that followed, I received
thoughtful emails from a remarkably broad audience – professors and writers
appreciative of the look inside Google, business leaders telling me how open
affects their business, grad school students surprised that this was the very
opposite of the lock-in strategy they were being taught. Cut to three years
later. What leaps out at me from that manifesto now is something entirely
different: how wrong I was.
It’s not that open doesn’t improve Google and the world. It’s that this has
happened far faster than I’d ever imagined. This realisation came to me
recently in the middle of the most mundane of twenty-first-century routines: I
was checking my phone, a Droid Razr Maxx. Staring at the thing, I saw it for
its sheer diversity: two dozen apps – from the New York Times to
Flipboard, Dialer One to OpenTable, RunKeeper to SlingPlayer – created by a slew of
different developers, on a phone built by Motorola. It occurred to me I wasn’t
looking merely at a mobile device, but the physical embodiment of how an open
ecosystem can ripple its way through the world nearly overnight.
To be sure, I always sensed the idea had legs – but I’d failed to anticipate
the extent to which it would rewrite the rules across the private and public
sectors. There are three technical trends driving this, and they’ve evolved at
an astounding rate. First: the internet is making information freer and more
ubiquitous than I’d thought possible; virtually everything that was offline is
now online. Second: the vision of mobile’s potential truly became a reality, as
devices grew much more powerful and faster than expected, facilitating
unprecedented global reach and connectivity. Third: cloud computing has allowed
for infinite computing power on demand. And we’re far from finished. As I write
this, Google Fiber is preparing to roll out a one-gigabit service in
Kansas City, signalling that connectivity is about to go through another order
of change.
A bit of irony attends the intersection of these technical developments: novel
as they are, their effect has been to bring more and more businesses back to
basics. Product quality and scale are now the most important factors in
determining business success. Historically, businesses could take advantage of
the scarcity of some information, or of connectivity, or of computing power to
attract and keep their customers and repel competition.
Today, customers can make far more informed choices thanks to the availability
of consumer information. Indeed, they empower each other to do so, via sites
like Yelp and a raft of social media. No longer can a company so thoroughly
control its customers’ environment. As barriers to distribution have fallen –
think cheap global shipping, think infinite shelf space for online retailers –
consumers increasingly control it themselves. Under this new paradigm, with
markets growing ever more competitive, companies have no choice but to focus on
product quality and scale. If they don’t, someone else will.
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With so much change happening so quickly, open has emerged as a critical
business tactic in achieving product excellence and scale. Opening a product to
an army of creatives is the surest path to product innovation and diversity,
since it allows each contributor to focus on what they do best and encourages
input from the widest possible audience.
Chrome and Android, which have taken off since ‘The Meaning of Open’ first
appeared, exemplify this principle. With both, we’ve maintained one simple goal
from the beginning: make the product as strong as it can be. As we learned time
and again, no route would get us there faster or more reliably than open – more
hands working on a product will only improve it. Open allows for preto-typing a
concept, or testing it in the earliest stages. What’s more, open systems
tolerate failure better – and attract a more devoted user base. They know the
primary motivation of an open system is product excellence; if the company
tried to impose some other agenda on it, the developer audience would detect it
immediately and revolt. In committing a product to openness, the company
surrenders the ability to do anything but make it better for the user.
The results speak for themselves. If you owned a smartphone in 2006, chances
are it said ‘Blackberry’ or ‘Nokia’ on it. Even just three years ago, Android
represented a mere five percent of the market. Today, we’ve shot up to 51
percent, and odds are good your smartphone was made by Samsung, HTC, Motorola
or another Android partner.
Android has even ended up in places we hadn’t anticipated, such as TVs, cars,
airplanes and even appliances (check out Ouya, a new videogame console built on
Android. Without an open Android, that sort of innovation doesn’t happen). The
lesson seems clear now: if you’re going to engage in an open system, you’re
forever committing to compete for your spot as primary innovator.
Open has been no less instrumental with the Chrome browser, which has been
built off the open-source Chromium project. Today, Chrome is a full
seven times faster than when it launched just four years ago, and new code
becomes available for all the world to see as it’s developed. Working in the
light of day like this makes it harder to have hidden agendas or otherwise fall
short; get things wrong and a global audience of developers will spot it
instantly.
Making open work as a business tactic may require new organisational
proficiencies. Speed is paramount, as is rigorous decision making. An open
ecosystem encourages a flood of ideas, and while creating good ideas is easy,
choosing among them is hard. So open can give companies a big competitive edge,
but only if they are suitably positioned to take advantage of it. The
alternative tactic – most notably employed by Apple and our own search teams –
is to keep systems more closed, and to exercise complete control. This approach
requires its own set of unique organisational skills, beyond just moving fast,
since product excellence and innovation must be sourced entirely from within.
Both approaches can obviously be successful, but in our experience, when it
comes to building global platforms, going open is a more sure-fire path to
success. ”
Fortunately, a growing number of organisations have seen the writing on the
wall. In Wikinomics, authors Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams
recount the tale of Goldcorp, a Toronto gold-mining firm that, in the late
‘90s, appeared to be on the ropes. Facing a contracting market, a host of
internal troubles and what appeared to be a picked-over mine, CEO Rob McEwen
did precisely what any business textbook would say not to: he started giving
away what little the company had left.
Specifically, he dumped 400 megabytes of information about Goldcorp’s
55,000-acre property on the company website. Rather than jealously guard its
last shreds of proprietary information, he offered over £350,000 in prize money
to anyone who could use their data to, in essence, find their gold. It was a
tremendous success. More than 80 percent of the targets identified by the
public yielded significant quantities of gold. From that small initial
investment, the company has pulled almost £2 billion worth of gold from the
ground.
Of course, McEwen was merely tuning in to the deep-seated principles of the
open-source movement. In the early, woolly days of the internet, an ethos of
universality and egalitarianism pervaded. ‘Walled gardens, no matter how
pleasing, can never compete in diversity, richness, and innovation with the
mad, throbbing web market outside their gates,’ Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor
of the World Wide Web, has written. Google has always thrived on that
diversity, richness and innovation. It’s what has allowed us to come out with
creations like Chrome and Android – and what allowed, for similar reasons, a
timeworn extraction industry to stun the world with similar successes.
Dramatic as the Goldcorp story is, it’s the tip of the iceberg. Indeed, what
began as a geeky concept within tech circles has spread to all corners of
business, governance, healthcare, education and beyond. We at Google see a
number of opportunities beyond the tech sector where open could affect
improvements both small and large.
Education
From Stanford to Korea, universities and teachers around the world are
beginning to give away high-quality educational content at no cost under an
open copyright license. What’s more, this content is increasingly available to
people in the most remote locations; bandwidth and connectivity have done away
with some of society’s most abiding barriers to education.
From the end of a long dirt road in Mumbai, a student with a phone can now take
the highest levels of coursework at MIT. Just as excitingly, that student can
also become a teacher. Thanks to truly democratising entities like the
non-profit Khan Academy, an online repository of over 3,000 video
lectures, people around the world can both utilise and contribute to a growing
library of resources, from physics lectures to finance tutorials. We already
know the extent to which public education transformed society in the twentieth
century. The possibilities for open online education seem just as
limitless.
Governance
Claims to governmental transparency are one thing – moves like the one Canada
made recently, with its formal Open Government Declaration, are another.
The document recognises that open is an active state, not a passive one – it’s
not just that data should be free to citizens whenever possible, but that an
active ‘culture of engagement’ should be the goal of such measures.
As more municipal, state and federal governments move in this direction,
there’s every reason to believe it’ll pay off financially. After GPS data was
made publicly available in the late 1980s, for example, commercial services
built on top of it are thought to have contributed £43 billion in economic
value within the US. Conversely, one could argue that when the Egyptian regime
shut down the internet in January 2011, it forced citizens into the streets to
get more information, swelling the crowds at Tahrir Square. In that instance,
it’s possible that reverting to a more closed system hastened the government’s
demise.
Health Care
PatientsLikeMe is a social networking health site built atop
the US Department of Health Services’ open data. Making way for more
initiatives like it could provide more patients with ways to share information
and learn from others with similar conditions. Researchers, too, could benefit
from greater openness in the industry.
Opening up health data would allow for the kinds of large-scale epidemiological
studies that lead to substantive breakthroughs – while employing stronger
safeguards than ever to ensure total patient privacy. By making its registry of
birth defects available to researchers, for instance, California has allowed
doctors to home in on a wealth of information about the health impact of
environmental factors. And, of course, Google
Flu Trends has already demonstrated how connectivity and scale can
coalesce to transform what we know about a particular virus, merely by letting
information be shared and collated.
Science
Researchers, institutions and funding agencies around the world are beginning
to realise that greater sharing and collaboration around the results of
scientific research can lead to greater speed and efficiency, higher quality
research and a greater overall impact. As European Commissioner Neelie Kroes
noted in a recent speech about science and openness policies in Europe,
“Researchers, engineers and small businesses need to access scientific results
quickly and easily. If they can’t, it’s bad for business.”
Greater access to scientific research can stimulate innovation in the private
sector and help solve the big challenges we face around the world (Google Fusion Tables is one tool scientists can use to share
and collaborate on disparate sets of data). Meanwhile, open in the scientific
context can mean opening research to entirely new participants. After failing
for over a decade to solve the structure of a protein-cutting enzyme from an
AIDS-like virus, scientists put the challenge to the gaming community. Using
the online game Foldit, players solved it in three weeks.
Transportation
By opening up public transit data, governments enable entrepreneurs to build
applications that run on top of that data, thereby improving the citizen
experience; citizens can also use this open data to report infrastructure
problems. At Google, we’ve already seen how this can work. When we set out to
organise the world’s geographical information, we found that for many places,
good maps simply didn’t exist. So we created MapMaker, a participatory mapping product that lets anyone
create annotations to Google Maps. With that, a league of online citizen
cartographers was born, charting in one two-month period over 25,000 kilometres
of previously unmapped roads in Pakistan.
The technical trends converging now are poised to alter – indeed, have already
begun to alter – realms that were historically closed, secretive and stagnant.
‘The future of government is transparency,’ I wrote three years ago. ‘The
future of commerce is information symmetry. The future of culture is freedom.
The future of science and medicine is collaboration. The future of
entertainment is participation. Each of these futures depends on an open
internet.’
I’d amend that a bit. Given the radical changes we’ve seen in just those three
years, the challenge has shifted. We must aim beyond even an open internet.
Institutions in general must continue to embrace this ethos. Getting to these
futures was never going to be easy – but I’m pleased to report that we’re
closer than ever.
"The lesson seems clear now: If you’re going to engage in an open system, you’re forever committing to compete for your spot as primary innovator."
- Published October 2012
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