The Chiefs completed an overhaul of an offensive line that was overmatched in a 31-9 Super Bowl LV loss to the Buccaneers by trading for offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. last week. Brown requested a trade from the Ravens at the start of the offseason because of his desire to play left tackle. He excelled at the position during the second half of 2020 after 2019 All-Pro Ronnie Stanley was sidelined with a season-ending ankle injury. Brown didn't allow a sack or quarterback hit in his 389 pass-blocking snaps at left tackle, according to Pro Football Focus. He earned Pro Bowl honors in 2020.
The Chiefs traded their 2021 first-round pick (31st overall), a 2021 third-round pick (94th overall), a 2021 fourth-round pick (136th overall) and a 2022 fifth-round selection to the Ravens for Brown, a 2021 second-round pick (58th overall) and a 2022 sixth-round pick.
According to the trade-value chart Jimmy Johnson created as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Chiefs gave up the equivalent of the 45th overall pick to acquire Brown. Although the Chiefs reportedly still use Johnson's chart, some view Johnson's model as outdated. More modern trade-value charts, such as Chase Stuart's, put the net draft choice compensation given up for Brown as the 23rd overall pick.
Brown, a 2018 third-round pick, is scheduled to make $3.384 million this year in the final season of his four-year rookie contract. NFL Media's Mike Garafolo reported shortly after the trade was announced that Kansas City's plan for now is Brown will play out his rookie contract rather than signing him to a contract extension.
The cost of waiting
Typically, the acquiring team pays a premium financially when a long-term deal for a player who has remaining time on his contract isn't done in connection with a trade involving significant draft capital. Negotiation leverage shifts in favor of the player because teams don't make a habit of giving up significant assets for a potential short-term rental. There are four fairly recent examples supporting this notion.
Wide receiver Amari Cooper was off to a slow start in new Raiders head coach Jon Gruden's offense when the Cowboys acquired him for a 2019 first-round pick as the 2018 trading deadline approached. He was also coming off a subpar 2017 season.
Had the Cowboys insisted on Cooper signing a new deal as a part of the trade, the value probably would have been closer to the $16 million per year, containing $30 million fully guaranteed, Sammy Watkins received from the Chiefs in 2018 free agency than the market-setting extension Odell Beckham Jr. signed with the Giants that preseason. The Cowboys were pursuing Watkins before he signed with the Chiefs. Beckham's five-year, $90 million extension, averaging $18 million per year, was worth a maximum of $95 million through salary escalators. The $65 million in overall guarantees was the most ever in a wide receiver contract with $40.959 million fully guaranteed at signing.
The Cowboys may have been cautious with a Cooper extension after getting burned by the Roy Williams trade. Williams signed a six-year, $54 million extension with $19.5 million guaranteed in 2008 when acquired from the Lions for 2009 first-, third- and sixth-round picks. He never came close to duplicating his 2006 Pro Bowl season. In two-plus disappointing seasons in Dallas, Williams totaled 94 catches for 1,324 yards and 13 touchdowns in 40 games played.
Cooper almost instantly became the legitimate receiving threat Dallas' offense had been sorely missing. The Cowboys let Cooper play out his fifth-year option before signing him last March to five-year, $100 million contract with $60 million of guarantees, making him the NFL's second-highest paid wide receiver by average yearly salary at $20 million per year.
Offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil exploited the tremendous contract leverage the Texans gave him by neglecting to secure an extension when acquiring him from the Dolphins for essentially two first-round picks and a second-round pick right before the start of the 2019 regular season. He became the highest-paid offensive lineman in NFL history at $22 million per year last April. Tunsil's $40 million fully guaranteed at signing set a new standard for offensive linemen at the time. His $50 million in overall guarantees was tied for second among offensive linemen.
When Tunsil was traded, Raiders right tackle Trent Brown was the league's highest-paid offensive lineman on the four-year, $66 million contract averaging $16.5 million per year he signed with the Raiders in 2019 free agency. A Tunsil deal done in September 2019 is probably in the same neighborhood as the $18 million-per-year extension Lane Johnson signed with the Eagles in October 2019.
The cornerback market had been stagnant when the Rams gave the Jaguars a 2020 first-round pick, a 2021 first-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick to obtain disgruntled All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey during the middle of the 2019 season. Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard had eclipsed Josh Norman as the NFL's highest-paid defensive back with a five-year extension averaging $15.05 million per year a few months earlier. His deal was less than a one-half percent increase over the five-year, $75 million contract Norman signed with the Washington Football Team in 2016. Norman was still the position's standard bearer in most other contract metrics.
Cornerback salaries finally had some significant movement with the five-year, $82.5 million contract Byron Jones received from the Dolphins in 2020 free agency. Ramsey took cornerback salaries to a different level shortly before the start of the 2020 regular season replacing Tre'Davious White as the league's highest-paid cover man by becoming the NFL's first $20 million-per-year defensive back. His five-year, $100 million extension is worth up to $105 million with salary escalators. Ramsey established new cornerback records of $71.203 million in guarantees and $43.703 million fully guaranteed at signing.
White had signed a four-year, $69 million extension (worth a maximum of $70 million with incentives) with the Bills a few days prior to Ramsey's deal. Ramsey may have had a difficult time topping the deal White signed last September in an extension with his trade given the cornerback market stagnation existing at that time.
Almost six months elapsed between the Cardinals' lopsided trade for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in March 2020 and signing him to a two-year extension, making him the league's highest-paid non-quarterback by average per year despite three years remaining on his contract. Hopkins received a two-year, $54.5 million extension right before the 2020 regular season started. The perennial All-Pro got a no-trade clause: the final year of the contract can void based on his performance and the Cardinals can't designate him as a franchise or transition player when the deal expires.
A big market shift occurred during this time frame. Bears edge rusher Khalil Mack was the salary benchmark at $23.5 million per year until Browns defensive end Myles Garrett became the NFL's first $25 million-per-year non-quarterback last July. About two weeks later, Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa signed a five-year, $135 million extension averaging $27 million per year. If the Cardinals had made Hopkins the highest-paid non-quarterback last March, it wouldn't have been for much more than Mack's $23.5 million per year.
Brown's contract value
Brown's small sample at left tackle in the NFL's most run-oriented offense is a legitimate reason for any hesitancy about immediately making a long-term commitment to him. One important benchmark for Brown is probably Stanley's deal. Stanley signed a five-year, $98.75 million extension worth up to $100 million through incentives at the end of last October, a couple of days before his injury. The deal contains record-setting guarantees for an offensive lineman contract. There are a little more than $65.5 million in overall guarantees where slightly more than $58.8 million was fully guaranteed at signing. The most recent offensive tackle data point is the three-year, $54.15 million extension with $42.5 million in guarantees Kolton Miller received from the Raiders at the beginning of April.
It's hard to imagine a Brown long-term deal that doesn't make him the fourth member of the $20 million-per-year offensive lineman club joining David Bakhtiari, Trent Williams and Tunsil. Williams is technically the NFL's highest-paid offensive lineman at $23.01 million per year. He's just ahead of the $23 million per year Bakhtiari received from the Packers in a four-year extension last season. Williams signed a six-year, $138.06 million contract to return to the 49ers after the Chiefs made a strong push for him. His $30.1 million signing bonus is also the largest ever in an offensive lineman contract. The deal is structured with the 49ers having to exercise an option for the final three years (2024 through 2026) worth $77.31 million by April 1, 2023. Declining the option would mean Williams has a three-year deal for $60.75 million.
The average of the top five offensive tackle contracts is just over $21.375 million per year and 4.2 new years is the average length. It also wouldn't be unreasonable for Brown to think that the offer made to Williams that wasn't accepted is a good barometer of his current value to the Chiefs. According to The Athletic's Matt Barrows, Kansas City's offer was in the same ballpark as the deal Williams signed with the 49ers. Brown shouldn't be interested in giving up more than four new years in an extension, considering he is on the verge of turning 25.
The Chiefs are reportedly prepared to use a franchise tag on Brown in 2022, if necessary. According to my calculations, the 2022 offensive lineman franchise number should be 7.988 percent of the 2022 salary cap. This number projects to $15.976 million with a $200 million salary cap next year.
On the surface, the franchise tag number should give the Chiefs some leverage in negotiations with Brown. In reality, the franchise tag would likely have as much bearing on the value of a long-term deal as it did with defensive tackle Chris Jones last year. Jones' defensive tackle franchise tag in 2020 was $16.126 million. The top of the defensive tackle market was more relevant than Jones' franchise number. Jones signed a four-year, $80 million contract worth up to $85 million through incentives with $60 million in guarantees. The deal made him the NFL's third highest-paid interior defensive lineman behind Aaron Donald (Rams) and DeForest Buckner (Colts).
Brown's acquisition paying dividends this season, while he plays out his rookie contract, would probably give him ammunition to become the league's highest-paid offensive lineman. Kansas City would have a hard time justifying after easily making Joe Thuney the NFL's highest-paid offensive guard with a five-year, $80 million contract containing $46.89 million of guarantees in this year's free agency, while refusing to do the same for Brown in the offensive tackle market when Thuney had never played a down for the Chiefs before his signing.
Thuney's contract represents a 13.17 percent increase over the previous offensive guard standard Brandon Brooks, who received a four-year, $56.55 million extension averaging $14,137,500 per year from the Eagles during the middle of the 2019 season. Based on Thuney's treatment, it would not be surprising for Brown to push to become the NFL's first $25 million-per-year offensive lineman next offseason provided he has a Pro Bowl-caliber 2021 season while his contract is expiring.