UK crop conditions are improved on last year with an expected increase to wheat production for harvest 2022, according to AHDB's harvest survey.
With autumn weather not posing many sowing challenges, it is estimated that 1,807Kha of wheat has been planted for harvest 2022.
The increase in wheat area has mainly come at the expense of spring barley.
The total barley area is estimated to be 4% down on the year, with a rise in winter plantings not outweighing a drop in spring barley area.
There is an estimated uptick in oilseed rape plantings for harvest 2022, with high prices providing the incentive for farmers to grow this alternative break crop.
In some regions the increase in oilseed rape plantings has come at the expense of oats. The total oat area is down year-on-year, but still historically high.
Anthony Speight, AHDB senior analyst said questions over quality domestically remain, with bread premiums historically high.
“With a possibility of higher opening stocks and increased production, we could have a larger exportable surplus in the 2022/23 marketing year.
"If this is the case, then it would mean we will have to price competitively for the export market," she explained.
"With the conflict in Ukraine now factored in and acting as a price floor, global markets will need fresh bullish news if prices are going to maintain the highs seen in recent months.
"It is paramount that domestic growers mitigate and manage risk amid the price volatility that we will continue to see."
Furthermore, with changing global geo-political dynamics and high global inflation, domestic growers are now faced with significantly higher crop input costs.
These current higher input costs mean that margins for harvest 2023 will likely be squeezed on crops being planted this autumn and next spring.
What are the findings of the survey?
The key findings of AHDB's harvest survey are that in 2022, the UK wheat area is estimated at 1,807Kha, 1 percent up from 2021.
The total UK barley area for harvest 2022 is estimated at 1,103Kha, down 4 percent on the year.
Meanwhile, the UK spring barley area is estimated at 656Kha, down 12% year-on-year, while the winter barley area is estimated to be 10% higher at 447Kha.
The UK oat area is estimated at 183Kha, 9% down year-on-year, and at 336Kha, the UK oilseed rape (OSR) area is 9% higher than 2021 levels.
For harvest 2022 KWS-Extase is the most popular wheat variety with 14% of the total wheat area.
For barley, Laureate is the most popular variety, accounting for 32% of the total barley area.
