Finance

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield advanced slightly on Monday, continuing to trade near 5.3%, its highest level since 2007. Bond markets remained stubbornly weak despite a weaker-than-expected September non-farm payrolls report showing just 29,000 new jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Analysts note that the divergence is driven by heavier government borrowing, structural competition for capital, and elevated real yields.

Expectations for an imminent rate increase at the Federal Reserve's upcoming October policy meeting have sharply diminished. Swap markets reduced the implied probability of a 25-basis point rate hike from 54% down to just 21% following revised labor data. While the softening payroll figures provided a window for equity stability, overall market volatility remains present as investors test the communication style and policy stance of the new leadership tenure.

Global energy markets found a level of stabilization as West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices hovered close to $90 per barrel. Downward pressure on prices materialized after leaders of the G7 nations agreed to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of diesel stockpiles. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly surrounding shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, continue to offer a persistent floor to broader energy volatility.