Finance

In his debut press conference, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a tougher tone, suggesting a more aggressive stance toward price stability despite leaving interest rates steady. Markets are now pricing in a high probability of a rate hike by October 2026, as officials forecast that inflation may not reach the 2% target until 2028.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve remains upward-sloping, with the 10-year note yielding approximately 4.46% as of mid-June. This stability follows a significant 'bear flattening' earlier in the year triggered by energy price volatility and shifting policy expectations after regional conflicts.

Brent crude oil prices have softened to approximately $80 per barrel, near their lowest levels since the start of the Iran conflict. While falling energy costs have propelled some equity gains, analysts warn that supply chains remain vulnerable to long-term disruptions and potential climate-driven demand surges.