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Projections, predictions ... - Information Transfer Economics
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › pro...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › pro...
Projections, predictions, accountability, and accuracy ... keep missing the data — I keep a gallery of macroeconomic "projections" (predictions? forecasts?) here.
predictions and ... - Information Transfer Economics: Models
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › mo...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › mo...
Mar 13, 2017 — Models: predictions and prediction failures. I think I first became aware of Beatrice Cherrier's work on economic history in January of last year ...
Predictions and prediction ... - Information Transfer Economics
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › pre...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › pre...
Jan 29, 2016 — Predictions and prediction markets. The 1st estimate of 2015 Q4 NGDP data is available on FRED today. It appears Hypermind has removed its ...
The ability to predict - Information Transfer Economics
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › the...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › the...
Apr 30, 2018 — The test of science is its ability to predict. Had you never visited the earth, could you predict the thunderstorms, the volcanoes, the ocean waves, ...
Prediction aggregation, redux - Information Transfer Economics
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › pre...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › pre...
Sep 18, 2015 — Prediction aggregation, redux. Here's a new post that aggregates predictions (here is the previous one). Prediction: multiple indicators. https:// ...
Predictions doing well after ... - Information Transfer Economics
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › pre...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › pre...
Sep 9, 2015 — OK, the last two weren't really model predictions -- RGDP falls out of the NGDP projection and the core CPI (so it's not really independent of the ...
Comparing NGDP predictions with results - Information ...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › co...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › co...
Jul 30, 2015 — Here's an update of the NGDP predictions from the information transfer model (gray line), and two log linear models (the "constant long run ...
Comparison of interest rate ... - Information Transfer Economics
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › co...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › co...
Aug 18, 2015 — In this case, I used 1999 as the prediction year instead of 2000 because the ... Even this does better than the (March of) 2000 BCEI predictions.
Qualitative economics done ... - Information Transfer Economics
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › qu...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › qu...
Jan 8, 2018 — Now UnlearningEcon says "predictions about crisis" (i.e. how it would ... economics community say that he predicted the global financial crisis.
Information Transfer Economics: "Out of sample" predictions ...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › out...
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com › out...
May 30, 2014 — "Out of sample" predictions with the information transfer model ... accurately model the price level and inflation rate or "predict" generic trends.