Liverpool wasn't in Premier League action last weekend, but two of its top-four rivals were.
The Reds were due to be playing Fulham, but that game was postponed because of the Cottagers' FA Cup sixth-round commitments against Manchester United.
On Friday night, Newcastle won 2-1 at Nottingham Forest courtesy of a stoppage-time winner from Alexander Isak. After Jürgen Klopp's side lost 1-0 to Bournemouth in its last top-flight fixture, Newcastle has now opened up a five-point advantage, with both teams sitting on 26 games played.
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There was better news for Liverpool on Saturday, though, as Spurs threw away a two-goal advantage to draw 3-3 with bottom-of-the-table Southampton, a collapse that sparked a remarkable tirade from manager Antonio Conte.
Before that game, a model devised by FiveThirtyEight gave Spurs a 34 per cent chance of finishing in the top four and qualifying for the Champions League, six per cent ahead of Liverpool.
But now, Spurs' chances have sunk to one in four, with even Brighton (26 per cent) supposedly more likely to make it. This may be because Tottenham has played 28 games, at least two more than every other side in the race.
Liverpool's prospects improved by one per cent even though it didn't play, but Newcastle was the big winner of the weekend as its likelihood of qualification climbed to 44 per cent.
The Reds are back in action on April 1 away to title-chasing Manchester City, before facing Chelsea and Arsenal in a potentially season-defining week.
They will also host Tottenham at Anfield at the end of the month, in what could be a defining fixture for which Liverpool has home advantage, having won the away game earlier in the campaign.
FiveThirtyEight's Champions League prediction:
Manchester United - 74 per cent chance of top four
Newcastle United - 44 per cent chance
Liverpool - 29 per cent chance
Brighton - 26 per cent chance
Tottenham - 25 per cent chance
Liverpool.com says: Antonio Conte's future in North London is seemingly hanging by a thread, so it will be interesting to see how Spurs' decision affects the dynamics of the race. If a new manager can lift the mood, the Lilywhites may be back in the driving seat again. There is still a long way to go yet...
