Ohio's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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Ohio's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 18, 2019
Primary: April 28, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Brad Wenstrup (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in Ohio
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Ohio's 2nd Congressional District
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Ohio elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Ohio, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Brad Wenstrup won election in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 18, 2019
April 28, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Brad Wenstrup, who was first elected in 2012.

Ohio's 2nd Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes Adams, Brown, Clermont, Highland, and Pike counties. Parts of Hamilton, Ross, and Scioto counties are also located in the district.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 42.9 38.9
Republican candidate Republican Party 55.6 61.1
Difference 12.7 22.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Ohio modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications could be submitted by fax or email for the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Ohio District 2

Incumbent Brad Wenstrup defeated Jaime Castle and James Condit Jr. in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Brad_Wenstrup.jpg
Brad Wenstrup (R)
 
61.1
 
230,430
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JCimage1.jpeg
Jaime Castle (D) Candidate Connection
 
38.9
 
146,781
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Jim_Condit_photo_2016.jpg
James Condit Jr. (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
37

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 377,248
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 2

Jaime Castle advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 2 on April 28, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JCimage1.jpeg
Jaime Castle Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
40,956

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 40,956
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 2

Incumbent Brad Wenstrup defeated H. Robert Harris in the Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 2 on April 28, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Brad_Wenstrup.jpg
Brad Wenstrup
 
94.2
 
53,674
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
H. Robert Harris
 
5.8
 
3,326

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 57,000
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nine of 88 Ohio counties—10.2 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Ashtabula County, Ohio 18.80% 12.78% 13.54%
Erie County, Ohio 9.48% 12.29% 13.86%
Montgomery County, Ohio 0.73% 4.62% 6.22%
Ottawa County, Ohio 19.51% 4.30% 6.24%
Portage County, Ohio 9.87% 5.52% 8.99%
Sandusky County, Ohio 22.58% 2.71% 4.64%
Stark County, Ohio 17.17% 0.47% 5.46%
Trumbull County, Ohio 6.22% 23.00% 22.43%
Wood County, Ohio 7.99% 4.84% 7.13%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Ohio with 51.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Ohio cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 93.3 percent of the time (28 out of 30 elections), more than any other state in the country. In that same time frame, Ohio supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 60 to 40 percent. Between 2000 and 2016, Ohio voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Ohio. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 35.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 33 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 34 points. Clinton won seven districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 60 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 17.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Ohio's 2nd Congressional District the 155th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.08. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.08 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Brad Wenstrup Republican Party $1,801,573 $1,764,298 $461,246 As of December 31, 2020
Jaime Castle Democratic Party $292,440 $279,714 $12,726 As of December 31, 2020
James Condit Jr. Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Ohio's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Ohio's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Ohio District 2

Incumbent Brad Wenstrup defeated Jill Schiller and James Condit Jr. in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Brad_Wenstrup.jpg
Brad Wenstrup (R)
 
57.6
 
166,714
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JillSchillerHeadshot.JPG
Jill Schiller (D)
 
41.2
 
119,333
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Jim_Condit_photo_2016.jpg
James Condit Jr. (G)
 
1.2
 
3,606
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
8

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 289,661
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 2

Jill Schiller defeated Janet Everhard and William Smith in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 2 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JillSchillerHeadshot.JPG
Jill Schiller
 
54.2
 
18,110
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Janet_Everhard2.jpeg
Janet Everhard
 
34.4
 
11,505
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Willsmith.jpeg
William Smith
 
11.3
 
3,791

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 33,406
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 2

Incumbent Brad Wenstrup advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 2 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Brad_Wenstrup.jpg
Brad Wenstrup
 
100.0
 
45,508

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 45,508
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2016

See also: Ohio's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Brad Wenstrup (R) defeated William Smith (D) and Janet Everhard (D write-in) in the general election. Wenstrup defeated Jim Lewis in the Republican primary. Smith defeated Russ Hurley and Ronny Harrison Richards in the Democratic primary on March 15, 2016.[12]

U.S. House, Ohio District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBrad Wenstrup Incumbent 65% 221,193
     Democratic William Smith 32.8% 111,694
     N/A Write-in 2.2% 7,392
Total Votes 340,279
Source: Ohio Secretary of State


U.S. House, Ohio District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBrad Wenstrup Incumbent 84.9% 101,765
Jim Lewis 15.1% 18,136
Total Votes 119,901
Source: Ohio Secretary of State
U.S. House, Ohio District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngWilliam Smith 41.7% 19,422
Ronny Richards 30% 13,976
Russ Hurley 28.3% 13,154
Total Votes 46,552
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

2014

See also: Ohio's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Ohio held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Brad Wenstrup (R) defeated Marek Tyszkiewicz (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Ohio District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBrad Wenstrup Incumbent 66% 132,658
     Democratic Marek Tyszkiewicz 34% 68,453
Total Votes 201,111
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Ohio Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, "Ohio 2016 March Primary Candidate List," accessed March 11, 2016


Ohio's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Sherrod Brown (D)
J.D. Vance (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
Bob Latta (R)
District 6
Vacant
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
Republican Party (10)
Democratic Party (6)
Vacancies (1)


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